We publish no single base value for HP Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $26.36 and $79.58 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $79.58 | +175.6% | free cash flow $3.88bn, growth 8.14% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.3%; stress floor $49.17 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $26.36 | -8.7% | earnings per share $3.24 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.6×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.17 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.49 (median of 8 S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.23 (82% own, 18% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.15 (0.67 × 1.23 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.30% |
Free cash flow grows 8.14% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.88bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 8.14% | $4.20bn | 0.9066 | $3.80bn |
| Year 2 | 8.14% | $4.54bn | 0.8219 | $3.73bn |
| Year 3 | 8.14% | $4.91bn | 0.7451 | $3.66bn |
| Year 4 | 8.14% | $5.31bn | 0.6755 | $3.59bn |
| Year 5 | 8.14% | $5.74bn | 0.6124 | $3.51bn |
| Year 6 | 7.28% | $6.16bn | 0.5552 | $3.42bn |
| Year 7 | 6.43% | $6.55bn | 0.5033 | $3.30bn |
| Year 8 | 5.57% | $6.92bn | 0.4563 | $3.16bn |
| Year 9 | 4.71% | $7.24bn | 0.4137 | $3.00bn |
| Year 10 | 3.86% | $7.52bn | 0.3750 | $2.82bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.30% − 3%) | $106.08bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $39.78bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $33.98bn |
| Total present value | $73.77bn |
| Shares outstanding | 927.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $79.58 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 3.14% | Growth 8.14% | Growth 13.14% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.30% | $68.97 | — | $124.72 |
| 10.30% | $59.51 | $79.58 | $106.09 |
| 11.30% | $52.34 | $69.47 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.17 | 10.39% | $78.55 |
| Peer beta | 1.49 | 11.84% | $65.05 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.15 | 10.30% | $79.58 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.24 |
| Year 1 | 8.14% | $3.50 |
| Year 2 | 6.60% | $3.74 |
| Year 3 | 5.52% | $3.94 |
| Year 4 | 4.76% | $4.13 |
| Year 5 | 4.23% | $4.30 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.30 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.6×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $43.04 |
| Discounted at 10.30% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6330 | $26.36 |
We publish no single base value for HP Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $26.36 and $79.58 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $14.62 and a 10% chance it is above $53.81 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $28.88, from 50.57% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.3% a year.
At $28.88 the price implies free cash flow growing -9.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 8.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $32.12 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $30.20 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $30.01 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $33.64 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $28.78 | $26.63 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $28.46 | $26.67 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $28.88 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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