We publish no single base value for Henry Schein. Our valuation methods put it between $66.68 and $83.20 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $83.20 | -3.4% | free cash flow $529.00m, growth 4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.18%; stress floor $55.91 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $66.68 | -22.6% | earnings per share $5.53 valued at 15.7× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.86 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.85 (84% own, 16% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.90 (0.67 × 0.85 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.18% |
Free cash flow grows 4.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $529.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.00% | $550.16m | 0.9159 | $503.90m |
| Year 2 | 4.00% | $572.17m | 0.8389 | $479.99m |
| Year 3 | 4.00% | $595.05m | 0.7684 | $457.22m |
| Year 4 | 4.00% | $618.86m | 0.7038 | $435.53m |
| Year 5 | 4.00% | $643.61m | 0.6446 | $414.87m |
| Year 6 | 3.83% | $668.28m | 0.5904 | $394.55m |
| Year 7 | 3.67% | $692.78m | 0.5408 | $374.62m |
| Year 8 | 3.50% | $717.03m | 0.4953 | $355.14m |
| Year 9 | 3.33% | $740.93m | 0.4536 | $336.12m |
| Year 10 | 3.17% | $764.40m | 0.4155 | $317.61m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.18% − 3%) | $12.74bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $5.29bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.07bn |
| Total present value | $9.36bn |
| Shares outstanding | 112.54m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $83.20 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1% | Growth 4% | Growth 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.18% | $72.87 | $99.43 | — |
| 9.18% | $61.54 | $83.20 | — |
| 10.18% | $53.34 | $71.49 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.86 | 9.00% | $85.72 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $91.99 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.90 | 9.18% | $83.20 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.53 |
| Year 1 | 4.00% | $5.75 |
| Year 2 | 3.70% | $5.97 |
| Year 3 | 3.49% | $6.18 |
| Year 4 | 3.34% | $6.38 |
| Year 5 | 3.24% | $6.59 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.59 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.7× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $103.44 |
| Discounted at 9.18% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5514 | $66.68 |
We publish no single base value for Henry Schein. Our valuation methods put it between $66.68 and $83.20 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $64.93 and a 10% chance it is above $127.62 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $86.14, from 26.23% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.18% a year.
At $86.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $84.88 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $84.01 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $86.38 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $84.96 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $84.88 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $86.05 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $86.14 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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