We publish no single base value for Hershey Company (The). Our valuation methods put it between $162.04 and $251.80 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $251.80 | +45.3% | free cash flow $2.05bn, growth 3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.15%; stress floor $155.28 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $162.04 | -6.5% | earnings per share $8.66 valued at 22.79× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.08 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.27 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.18 (47% own, 53% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.45 (0.67 × 0.18 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.15% |
Free cash flow grows 3.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.05bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.00% | $2.11bn | 0.9332 | $1.97bn |
| Year 2 | 3.00% | $2.17bn | 0.8709 | $1.89bn |
| Year 3 | 3.00% | $2.24bn | 0.8128 | $1.82bn |
| Year 4 | 3.00% | $2.31bn | 0.7585 | $1.75bn |
| Year 5 | 3.00% | $2.37bn | 0.7078 | $1.68bn |
| Year 6 | 3.00% | $2.45bn | 0.6606 | $1.62bn |
| Year 7 | 3.00% | $2.52bn | 0.6165 | $1.55bn |
| Year 8 | 3.00% | $2.60bn | 0.5753 | $1.49bn |
| Year 9 | 3.00% | $2.67bn | 0.5369 | $1.44bn |
| Year 10 | 3.00% | $2.75bn | 0.5010 | $1.38bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.15% − 3%) | $68.25bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $34.20bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.59bn |
| Total present value | $50.79bn |
| Shares outstanding | 201.69m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $251.80 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2% | Growth 3% | Growth 8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.15% | $237.76 | $331.61 | — |
| 7.15% | $182.50 | $251.80 | — |
| 8.15% | $148.60 | $202.95 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.08 | 5.49% | $420.17 |
| Peer beta | 0.27 | 6.34% | $312.77 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.45 | 7.15% | $251.80 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.66 |
| Year 1 | 3.00% | $8.92 |
| Year 2 | 3.00% | $9.19 |
| Year 3 | 3.00% | $9.47 |
| Year 4 | 3.00% | $9.75 |
| Year 5 | 3.00% | $10.04 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.04 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 22.79× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $228.92 |
| Discounted at 7.15% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4127 | $162.04 |
We publish no single base value for Hershey Company (The). Our valuation methods put it between $162.04 and $251.80 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $127.09 and a 10% chance it is above $252.77 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $173.29, from 26.69% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.15% a year.
At $173.29 the price implies free cash flow growing -2.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $160.19 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $162.74 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $170.83 | $176.16 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $169.64 | $176.81 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $165.61 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $178.08 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $173.29 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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