We publish no single base value for Humana. Our valuation methods put it between $198.78 and $453.12 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $453.12 | +2.1% | free cash flow $747.00m, growth 22.02% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.73%; plus net cash $113.54 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $198.78 | -55.2% | earnings per share $9.45 valued at 17.02× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.65 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.34) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.70 (64% own, 36% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.80 (0.67 × 0.70 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.73% |
Free cash flow grows 22.02% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $747.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 22.02% | $911.49m | 0.9197 | $838.31m |
| Year 2 | 22.02% | $1.11bn | 0.8459 | $940.77m |
| Year 3 | 22.02% | $1.36bn | 0.7780 | $1.06bn |
| Year 4 | 22.02% | $1.66bn | 0.7155 | $1.18bn |
| Year 5 | 22.02% | $2.02bn | 0.6580 | $1.33bn |
| Year 6 | 18.85% | $2.40bn | 0.6052 | $1.45bn |
| Year 7 | 15.68% | $2.78bn | 0.5566 | $1.55bn |
| Year 8 | 12.51% | $3.13bn | 0.5119 | $1.60bn |
| Year 9 | 9.34% | $3.42bn | 0.4708 | $1.61bn |
| Year 10 | 6.17% | $3.63bn | 0.4330 | $1.57bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.73% − 3%) | $65.22bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $28.24bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.13bn |
| Total present value | $41.37bn |
| Shares outstanding | 121.83m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $339.59 |
| Plus net cash per share | $113.54 |
| Value per share | $453.12 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 17.02% | Growth 22.02% | Growth 27.02% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.73% | $428.26 | $535.58 | $675.57 |
| 8.73% | $368.11 | $453.13 | $563.72 |
| 9.73% | $326.09 | $395.61 | $485.81 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.65 | 8.05% | $505.14 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $462.50 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.80 | 8.73% | $453.13 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.45 |
| Year 1 | 22.02% | $11.53 |
| Year 2 | 16.31% | $13.41 |
| Year 3 | 12.32% | $15.07 |
| Year 4 | 9.52% | $16.50 |
| Year 5 | 7.57% | $17.75 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $17.75 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.02× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $302.08 |
| Discounted at 8.73% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5197 | $198.78 |
We publish no single base value for Humana. Our valuation methods put it between $198.78 and $453.12 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $280.88 and a 10% chance it is above $724.48 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $443.68, from 36.78% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.73% a year.
At $443.68 the price implies free cash flow growing 21.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 22.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $388.36 | $138.97 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $431.87 | $139.32 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $413.16 | $175.78 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $422.07 | $176.46 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $414.50 | $172.78 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $433.74 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $443.68 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on HUM · Humana company page · Call and put prices