We publish no single base value for Howmet Aerospace. Our valuation methods put it between $200.24 and $241.75 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $200.24 | -10.3% | free cash flow $1.93bn, growth 22.02% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.35%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $241.75 | +8.4% | earnings per share $5.50 valued at 38.28× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.30 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.24) |
| Peer beta | 0.47 (median of 11 S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.24 (93% own, 7% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.16 (0.67 × 1.24 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.35% |
Free cash flow grows 22.02% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.93bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 22.02% | $2.35bn | 0.9062 | $2.13bn |
| Year 2 | 22.02% | $2.87bn | 0.8212 | $2.36bn |
| Year 3 | 22.02% | $3.51bn | 0.7442 | $2.61bn |
| Year 4 | 22.02% | $4.28bn | 0.6744 | $2.89bn |
| Year 5 | 22.02% | $5.22bn | 0.6111 | $3.19bn |
| Year 6 | 18.85% | $6.20bn | 0.5538 | $3.44bn |
| Year 7 | 15.68% | $7.18bn | 0.5019 | $3.60bn |
| Year 8 | 12.51% | $8.08bn | 0.4548 | $3.67bn |
| Year 9 | 9.34% | $8.83bn | 0.4121 | $3.64bn |
| Year 10 | 6.17% | $9.37bn | 0.3735 | $3.50bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.35% − 3%) | $131.37bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $49.06bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $31.03bn |
| Total present value | $80.09bn |
| Shares outstanding | 400.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $200.24 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 17.02% | Growth 22.02% | Growth 27.02% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.35% | $178.57 | $237.44 | $313.90 |
| 10.35% | $151.37 | $200.24 | $263.54 |
| 11.35% | $130.82 | $172.19 | $225.65 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.30 | 10.98% | $181.72 |
| Peer beta | 0.47 | 7.24% | $374.80 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.16 | 10.35% | $200.24 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.50 |
| Year 1 | 22.02% | $6.71 |
| Year 2 | 16.31% | $7.81 |
| Year 3 | 12.32% | $8.77 |
| Year 4 | 9.52% | $9.61 |
| Year 5 | 7.57% | $10.33 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.33 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 38.28× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $395.57 |
| Discounted at 10.35% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6363 | $241.75 |
We publish no single base value for Howmet Aerospace. Our valuation methods put it between $200.24 and $241.75 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $115.23 and a 10% chance it is above $412.45 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $223.11, from 49.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.35% a year.
At $223.11 the price implies free cash flow growing 24.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 22.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $231.27 | $174.42 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $225.26 | $174.54 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $220.96 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $185.91 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $199.22 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $205.81 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $223.11 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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