We publish no single base value for Intercontinental Exchange. Our valuation methods put it between $137.66 and $163.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $163.08 | -8.3% | free cash flow $5.05bn, growth 4.58% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.22%; stress floor $107.82 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $137.66 | -22.6% | earnings per share $8.18 valued at 21.53× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.84 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 1.03 (median of 7 S&P 500 Financial Exchanges & Data companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.87 (85% own, 15% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 (0.67 × 0.87 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.22% |
Free cash flow grows 4.58% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.05bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.58% | $5.28bn | 0.9155 | $4.83bn |
| Year 2 | 4.58% | $5.52bn | 0.8382 | $4.63bn |
| Year 3 | 4.58% | $5.77bn | 0.7674 | $4.43bn |
| Year 4 | 4.58% | $6.04bn | 0.7026 | $4.24bn |
| Year 5 | 4.58% | $6.31bn | 0.6433 | $4.06bn |
| Year 6 | 4.32% | $6.59bn | 0.5889 | $3.88bn |
| Year 7 | 4.05% | $6.85bn | 0.5392 | $3.70bn |
| Year 8 | 3.79% | $7.11bn | 0.4937 | $3.51bn |
| Year 9 | 3.53% | $7.36bn | 0.4520 | $3.33bn |
| Year 10 | 3.26% | $7.60bn | 0.4138 | $3.15bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.22% − 3%) | $125.82bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $52.06bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $39.75bn |
| Total present value | $91.81bn |
| Shares outstanding | 563.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $163.08 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.42% | Growth 4.58% | Growth 9.58% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.22% | $142.90 | $194.82 | — |
| 9.22% | $120.70 | $163.08 | — |
| 10.22% | $104.62 | $140.15 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | $171.92 |
| Peer beta | 1.03 | 9.77% | $149.85 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.91 | 9.22% | $163.08 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.18 |
| Year 1 | 4.58% | $8.56 |
| Year 2 | 4.19% | $8.92 |
| Year 3 | 3.89% | $9.26 |
| Year 4 | 3.67% | $9.60 |
| Year 5 | 3.50% | $9.94 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.94 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 21.53× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $214.00 |
| Discounted at 9.22% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5546 | $137.66 |
We publish no single base value for Intercontinental Exchange. Our valuation methods put it between $137.66 and $163.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $137.11 and a 10% chance it is above $259.82 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $177.86, from 24.81% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.22% a year.
At $177.86 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $150.15 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $156.19 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $161.56 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $162.74 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $168.85 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $172.27 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $177.86 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on ICE · Intercontinental Exchange company page · Call and put prices