On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Illumina, Inc. is $105.10 a share, 49.8% below its $209.55 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $105.10 | -49.8% | free cash flow $1.06bn, growth 4.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.21%; stress floor $72.99 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 58.4x is 1.7x the 33.9x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.47 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.35) |
| Peer beta | 1.17 (median of 8 S&P 500 Life Sciences Tools & Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.19 (7% own, 93% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.13 (0.67 × 1.19 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.21% |
Free cash flow grows 4.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.06bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.20% | $1.10bn | 0.9073 | $999.31m |
| Year 2 | 4.20% | $1.15bn | 0.8232 | $944.78m |
| Year 3 | 4.20% | $1.20bn | 0.7469 | $893.22m |
| Year 4 | 4.20% | $1.25bn | 0.6777 | $844.47m |
| Year 5 | 4.20% | $1.30bn | 0.6149 | $798.38m |
| Year 6 | 4.00% | $1.35bn | 0.5579 | $753.36m |
| Year 7 | 3.80% | $1.40bn | 0.5062 | $709.51m |
| Year 8 | 3.60% | $1.45bn | 0.4593 | $666.93m |
| Year 9 | 3.40% | $1.50bn | 0.4167 | $625.69m |
| Year 10 | 3.20% | $1.55bn | 0.3781 | $585.86m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.21% − 3%) | $22.12bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.36bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.82bn |
| Total present value | $16.19bn |
| Shares outstanding | 154.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $105.10 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.8% | Growth 4.2% | Growth 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.21% | $90.46 | $122.25 | — |
| 10.21% | $78.44 | $105.10 | — |
| 11.21% | $69.33 | $92.13 | $122.33 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.47 | 11.75% | $86.47 |
| Peer beta | 1.17 | 10.39% | $102.51 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.13 | 10.21% | $105.10 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $105.10 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $105.10
Base value $105.10 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $73.68 and a 10% chance it is above $444.26 in a year; a 42% chance it is higher than today's $209.55, from 69.74% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.21% a year.
At $209.55 the price implies free cash flow growing 16.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $273.04 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $278.17 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $262.54 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $269.42 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $235.99 | $108.07 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $213.13 | $109.13 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $209.55 | $105.10 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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