On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Incyte is $145.05 a share, 19.2% above its $121.70 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $145.05 | +19.2% | free cash flow $684.87m, growth 14% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.37%; plus net cash $19.23 a share; stress floor $78.63 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 25.5x is 1.8x the 14.1x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.78 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.28 (median of 7 S&P 500 Biotechnology companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.58 (60% own, 40% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.72 (0.67 × 0.58 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.37% |
Free cash flow grows 14.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $684.87m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.00% | $780.75m | 0.9228 | $720.45m |
| Year 2 | 14.00% | $890.06m | 0.8515 | $757.88m |
| Year 3 | 14.00% | $1.01bn | 0.7857 | $797.25m |
| Year 4 | 14.00% | $1.16bn | 0.7250 | $838.67m |
| Year 5 | 14.00% | $1.32bn | 0.6690 | $882.24m |
| Year 6 | 12.17% | $1.48bn | 0.6174 | $913.15m |
| Year 7 | 10.33% | $1.63bn | 0.5697 | $929.69m |
| Year 8 | 8.50% | $1.77bn | 0.5257 | $930.81m |
| Year 9 | 6.67% | $1.89bn | 0.4851 | $916.18m |
| Year 10 | 4.83% | $1.98bn | 0.4476 | $886.28m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.37% − 3%) | $37.98bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $17.00bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.57bn |
| Total present value | $25.57bn |
| Shares outstanding | 203.25m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $125.82 |
| Plus net cash per share | $19.23 |
| Value per share | $145.05 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 9% | Growth 14% | Growth 19% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.37% | — | $176.48 | $231.43 |
| 8.37% | — | $145.05 | $188.02 |
| 9.37% | — | $123.59 | $158.43 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.78 | 8.64% | $138.49 |
| Peer beta | 0.28 | 6.39% | $225.47 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.72 | 8.37% | $145.05 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $145.05 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $145.05
Base value $145.05 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $86.14 and a 10% chance it is above $185.18 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $121.70, from 29.71% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.37% a year.
At $121.70 the price implies free cash flow growing 10.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 14.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $115.30 | $233.56 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $112.79 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $113.07 | $801.42 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $115.71 | $816.61 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $120.39 | $150.24 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $119.65 | $152.11 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $121.70 | $145.05 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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