On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Intuit is $876.57 a share, 157.7% above its $340.17 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $876.57 | +157.7% | free cash flow $8.62bn, growth 13.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.95%; stress floor $452.13 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 33.7x is 2.4x the 14.3x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.91 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 1.25 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.10 (46% own, 54% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.07 (0.67 × 1.10 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.95% |
Free cash flow grows 13.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.62bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.70% | $9.80bn | 0.9095 | $8.91bn |
| Year 2 | 13.70% | $11.14bn | 0.8273 | $9.22bn |
| Year 3 | 13.70% | $12.67bn | 0.7524 | $9.53bn |
| Year 4 | 13.70% | $14.40bn | 0.6844 | $9.86bn |
| Year 5 | 13.70% | $16.37bn | 0.6225 | $10.19bn |
| Year 6 | 11.92% | $18.33bn | 0.5662 | $10.38bn |
| Year 7 | 10.13% | $20.18bn | 0.5150 | $10.39bn |
| Year 8 | 8.35% | $21.87bn | 0.4684 | $10.24bn |
| Year 9 | 6.57% | $23.30bn | 0.4260 | $9.93bn |
| Year 10 | 4.78% | $24.42bn | 0.3875 | $9.46bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.95% − 3%) | $362.14bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $140.32bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $98.11bn |
| Total present value | $238.43bn |
| Shares outstanding | 272.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $876.57 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.7% | Growth 13.7% | Growth 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.95% | — | $1,039.99 | $1,391.05 |
| 9.95% | — | $876.57 | $1,165.80 |
| 10.95% | $568.80 | $754.95 | $998.49 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.91 | 9.22% | $988.85 |
| Peer beta | 1.25 | 10.75% | $775.59 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.07 | 9.95% | $876.57 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $876.57 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $876.57
Base value $876.57 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $201.29 and a 10% chance it is above $586.33 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $340.17, from 41.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.95% a year.
At $340.17 the price implies free cash flow growing -2.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $281.08 | $598.25 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $302.75 | $593.66 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $325.15 | $840.34 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $343.39 | $851.31 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $341.09 | $885.16 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $341.50 | $894.77 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $340.17 | $876.57 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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