We publish no single base value for Ingersoll Rand. Our valuation methods put it between $69.39 and $70.36 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $70.36 | -17.5% | free cash flow $1.52bn, growth 5.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.68%; stress floor $45.89 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $69.39 | -18.7% | earnings per share $3.65 valued at 24.42× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.14 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.98 (median of 13 S&P 500 Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.02 (21% own, 79% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.01 (0.67 × 1.02 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.68% |
Free cash flow grows 5.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.52bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.60% | $1.60bn | 0.9118 | $1.46bn |
| Year 2 | 5.60% | $1.69bn | 0.8314 | $1.41bn |
| Year 3 | 5.60% | $1.79bn | 0.7580 | $1.35bn |
| Year 4 | 5.60% | $1.89bn | 0.6911 | $1.30bn |
| Year 5 | 5.60% | $1.99bn | 0.6302 | $1.26bn |
| Year 6 | 5.17% | $2.10bn | 0.5746 | $1.20bn |
| Year 7 | 4.73% | $2.19bn | 0.5239 | $1.15bn |
| Year 8 | 4.30% | $2.29bn | 0.4777 | $1.09bn |
| Year 9 | 3.87% | $2.38bn | 0.4355 | $1.04bn |
| Year 10 | 3.43% | $2.46bn | 0.3971 | $976.43m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.68% − 3%) | $37.94bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $15.07bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.24bn |
| Total present value | $27.31bn |
| Shares outstanding | 388.10m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $70.36 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.6% | Growth 5.6% | Growth 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.68% | $61.26 | $83.11 | — |
| 9.68% | $52.30 | $70.36 | — |
| 10.68% | $45.67 | $60.94 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.14 | 10.26% | $64.53 |
| Peer beta | 0.98 | 9.54% | $71.85 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.01 | 9.68% | $70.36 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.65 |
| Year 1 | 5.60% | $3.86 |
| Year 2 | 4.69% | $4.04 |
| Year 3 | 4.10% | $4.20 |
| Year 4 | 3.71% | $4.36 |
| Year 5 | 3.46% | $4.51 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.51 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 24.42× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $110.12 |
| Discounted at 9.68% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5869 | $69.39 |
We publish no single base value for Ingersoll Rand. Our valuation methods put it between $69.39 and $70.36 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $60.64 and a 10% chance it is above $132.23 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $85.31, from 30.26% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.68% a year.
At $85.31 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $76.07 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $78.75 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $77.78 | $71.33 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $73.48 | $71.62 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $80.05 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $82.99 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $85.31 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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