On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Intuitive Surgical is $404.89 a share, 8.0% below its $439.89 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $404.89 | -8.0% | free cash flow $3.60bn, growth 20.45% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.39%; plus net cash $18.48 a share; stress floor $185.50 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 58.9x is 1.7x the 35.3x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.45 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 15 S&P 500 Health Care Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.26 (72% own, 28% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.17 (0.67 × 1.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.39% |
Free cash flow grows 20.45% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.60bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 20.45% | $4.33bn | 0.9058 | $3.93bn |
| Year 2 | 20.45% | $5.22bn | 0.8205 | $4.28bn |
| Year 3 | 20.45% | $6.29bn | 0.7433 | $4.67bn |
| Year 4 | 20.45% | $7.57bn | 0.6733 | $5.10bn |
| Year 5 | 20.45% | $9.12bn | 0.6099 | $5.56bn |
| Year 6 | 17.54% | $10.72bn | 0.5525 | $5.92bn |
| Year 7 | 14.63% | $12.29bn | 0.5004 | $6.15bn |
| Year 8 | 11.72% | $13.73bn | 0.4533 | $6.23bn |
| Year 9 | 8.82% | $14.94bn | 0.4106 | $6.14bn |
| Year 10 | 5.91% | $15.83bn | 0.3720 | $5.89bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.39% − 3%) | $220.43bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $81.99bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $53.87bn |
| Total present value | $135.86bn |
| Shares outstanding | 351.60m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $386.41 |
| Plus net cash per share | $18.48 |
| Value per share | $404.89 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 15.45% | Growth 20.45% | Growth 25.45% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.39% | $361.71 | $475.53 | $623.69 |
| 10.39% | $310.21 | $404.89 | $527.79 |
| 11.39% | $271.24 | $351.52 | $455.45 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.45 | 11.65% | $339.73 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $550.74 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.17 | 10.39% | $404.89 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $404.89 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $404.89
Base value $404.89 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $291.38 and a 10% chance it is above $718.81 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $439.89, from 35.05% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.39% a year.
At $439.89 the price implies free cash flow growing 22.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 20.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $391.95 | $149.89 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $423.96 | $151.29 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $426.70 | $327.58 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $452.29 | $402.22 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $432.01 | $417.15 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $452.80 | $421.50 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $439.89 | $404.89 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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