On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Gartner is $238.87 a share, 25.2% above its $190.84 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $238.87 | +25.2% | free cash flow $1.29bn, growth -1.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.77%; stress floor $193.94 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 30.6x is 2.4x the 12.7x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.92 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.31) |
| Peer beta | 1.34 (median of 73 S&P 500 Information Technology companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.04 (72% own, 28% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.03 (0.67 × 1.04 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.77% |
Free cash flow grows -1.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.29bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -1.30% | $1.28bn | 0.9110 | $1.16bn |
| Year 2 | -1.30% | $1.26bn | 0.8300 | $1.05bn |
| Year 3 | -1.30% | $1.25bn | 0.7562 | $941.41m |
| Year 4 | -1.30% | $1.23bn | 0.6889 | $846.51m |
| Year 5 | -1.30% | $1.21bn | 0.6276 | $761.18m |
| Year 6 | -0.58% | $1.21bn | 0.5718 | $689.42m |
| Year 7 | 0.13% | $1.21bn | 0.5209 | $628.92m |
| Year 8 | 0.85% | $1.22bn | 0.4746 | $577.84m |
| Year 9 | 1.57% | $1.24bn | 0.4323 | $534.68m |
| Year 10 | 2.28% | $1.26bn | 0.3939 | $498.24m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.77% − 3%) | $19.26bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $7.59bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.69bn |
| Total present value | $15.28bn |
| Shares outstanding | 63.95m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $238.87 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -6.3% | Growth -1.3% | Growth 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.77% | $204.53 | $278.13 | $377.51 |
| 9.77% | $177.47 | $238.87 | $321.33 |
| 10.77% | $157.25 | $209.64 | $279.63 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.92 | 9.27% | $256.75 |
| Peer beta | 1.34 | 11.16% | $200.05 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.03 | 9.77% | $238.87 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $238.87 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $238.87
Base value $238.87 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $85.25 and a 10% chance it is above $371.25 in a year; a 45% chance it is higher than today's $190.84, from 57.11% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.77% a year.
At $190.84 the price implies free cash flow growing -5.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -1.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $184.80 | $254.01 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $191.15 | $252.09 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $205.35 | $235.08 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $230.28 | $237.88 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $228.79 | $244.88 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $190.10 | $248.04 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $190.84 | $238.87 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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