We publish no single base value for Invesco. Our valuation methods put it between $25.57 and $86.39 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $86.39 | +203.4% | free cash flow $1.74bn, growth 13.65% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.34%; stress floor $46.97 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $25.57 | -10.2% | earnings per share $2.78 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.6×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.69 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.44 (median of 11 S&P 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.56 (50% own, 50% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.38 (0.67 × 1.56 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.34% |
Free cash flow grows 13.65% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.74bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.65% | $1.97bn | 0.8981 | $1.77bn |
| Year 2 | 13.65% | $2.24bn | 0.8067 | $1.81bn |
| Year 3 | 13.65% | $2.55bn | 0.7245 | $1.85bn |
| Year 4 | 13.65% | $2.90bn | 0.6507 | $1.89bn |
| Year 5 | 13.65% | $3.29bn | 0.5844 | $1.92bn |
| Year 6 | 11.88% | $3.68bn | 0.5249 | $1.93bn |
| Year 7 | 10.10% | $4.06bn | 0.4715 | $1.91bn |
| Year 8 | 8.32% | $4.39bn | 0.4234 | $1.86bn |
| Year 9 | 6.55% | $4.68bn | 0.3803 | $1.78bn |
| Year 10 | 4.78% | $4.90bn | 0.3416 | $1.68bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.34% − 3%) | $60.57bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $20.69bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $18.40bn |
| Total present value | $39.09bn |
| Shares outstanding | 452.50m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $86.39 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.65% | Growth 13.65% | Growth 18.65% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.34% | — | $99.60 | $132.17 |
| 11.34% | $65.25 | $86.39 | $114.01 |
| 12.34% | $57.80 | — | $99.86 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.69 | 12.73% | — |
| Peer beta | 1.44 | 11.61% | $83.36 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.38 | 11.34% | $86.39 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.78 |
| Year 1 | 13.65% | $3.16 |
| Year 2 | 10.99% | $3.51 |
| Year 3 | 8.99% | $3.83 |
| Year 4 | 7.49% | $4.11 |
| Year 5 | 6.37% | $4.37 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.37 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.6×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $43.75 |
| Discounted at 11.34% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7110 | $25.57 |
We publish no single base value for Invesco. Our valuation methods put it between $25.57 and $86.39 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $19.53 and a 10% chance it is above $46.29 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $28.47, from 33.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.34% a year.
At $28.47 the price implies free cash flow growing -6.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $30.66 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $29.51 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $28.20 | $24.78 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $28.06 | $24.87 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $27.76 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $27.08 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $28.47 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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