We publish no single base value for Jacobs Solutions. Our valuation methods put it between $192.46 and $582.48 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $582.48 | +267.1% | free cash flow $644.54m, growth 34.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.87%; stress floor $159.31 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $192.46 | +21.3% | earnings per share $7.27 valued at 16.16× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.68 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.75 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.83 (0.67 × 0.75 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.87% |
Free cash flow grows 34.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $644.54m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 34.50% | $866.91m | 0.9186 | $796.32m |
| Year 2 | 34.50% | $1.17bn | 0.8438 | $983.83m |
| Year 3 | 34.50% | $1.57bn | 0.7751 | $1.22bn |
| Year 4 | 34.50% | $2.11bn | 0.7119 | $1.50bn |
| Year 5 | 34.50% | $2.84bn | 0.6540 | $1.86bn |
| Year 6 | 29.25% | $3.67bn | 0.6007 | $2.20bn |
| Year 7 | 24.00% | $4.55bn | 0.5518 | $2.51bn |
| Year 8 | 18.75% | $5.40bn | 0.5069 | $2.74bn |
| Year 9 | 13.50% | $6.13bn | 0.4656 | $2.85bn |
| Year 10 | 8.25% | $6.63bn | 0.4277 | $2.84bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.87% − 3%) | $116.50bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $49.83bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $19.49bn |
| Total present value | $69.32bn |
| Shares outstanding | 119.01m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $582.48 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 29.5% | Growth 34.5% | Growth 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.87% | $552.46 | $727.65 | $951.83 |
| 8.87% | $443.84 | $582.48 | $759.55 |
| 9.87% | $367.61 | $480.70 | $624.87 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.68 | 8.19% | $674.17 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $493.51 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.83 | 8.87% | $582.48 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.27 |
| Year 1 | 34.50% | $9.77 |
| Year 2 | 25.05% | $12.22 |
| Year 3 | 18.43% | $14.47 |
| Year 4 | 13.80% | $16.47 |
| Year 5 | 10.56% | $18.21 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $18.21 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 16.16× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $294.30 |
| Discounted at 8.87% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5291 | $192.46 |
We publish no single base value for Jacobs Solutions. Our valuation methods put it between $192.46 and $582.48 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $113.49 and a 10% chance it is above $241.85 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $158.69, from 29.37% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.87% a year.
At $158.69 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 34.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $138.06 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $139.15 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $141.08 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $145.06 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $154.62 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $148.90 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $158.69 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Jun 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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