On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for JPMorgan Chase is $244.73 a share, 28.6% below its $342.82 close; 0 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | not used for banks and lenders: deposits and loans are the business, so free cash flow does not describe it; see tangible book |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $220.82 | -35.6% | earnings per share $23.91 valued at 10.87× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing states no operating profit for 'Commercial & Investment Bank'. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $268.63 | -21.6% | tangible book $111.06 a share at 2.419× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $23.91 |
| Year 1 | 8.71% | $26.00 |
| Year 2 | 7.00% | $27.81 |
| Year 3 | 5.80% | $29.43 |
| Year 4 | 4.96% | $30.89 |
| Year 5 | 4.37% | $32.24 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $32.24 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.87× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $350.42 |
| Discounted at 9.68% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5869 | $220.82 |
| Shareholders' equity | $362.44bn |
| Less goodwill | $52.73bn |
| Less other intangibles | $11.73bn |
| Tangible equity | $297.98bn |
| Shares | 2.68bn |
| Tangible book per share | $111.06 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $57.05bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 19.14% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 9.68% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (19.14% − 3%) ÷ (9.68% − 3%) | 2.42× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $268.63 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $220.82 |
| Tangible book | $268.63 |
($220.82 + $268.63) ÷ 2 = $244.73
Base value $244.73 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $284.98 and a 10% chance it is above $478.91 in a year; a 65% chance it is higher than today's $342.82, from 20.15% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.68% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $332.38 | $211.01 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $332.99 | $209.08 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $339.72 | $247.73 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $331.58 | $249.70 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $337.04 | $250.28 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $334.49 | $251.57 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $342.82 | $244.73 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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