On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for KeyCorp is $17.31 a share, 18.8% below its $21.33 close; 0 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | not used for banks and lenders: deposits and loans are the business, so free cash flow does not describe it; see tangible book |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $16.07 | -24.7% | earnings per share $1.89 valued at 11.56× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $18.55 | -13.0% | tangible book $16.56 a share at 1.121× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.89 |
| Year 1 | 3.16% | $1.95 |
| Year 2 | 3.12% | $2.01 |
| Year 3 | 3.09% | $2.07 |
| Year 4 | 3.07% | $2.13 |
| Year 5 | 3.05% | $2.20 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.20 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.56× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $25.39 |
| Discounted at 9.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5804 | $16.07 |
| Shareholders' equity | $20.38bn |
| Less goodwill | $2.75bn |
| Less other intangibles | $8.00m |
| Tangible equity | $17.62bn |
| Shares | 1.06bn |
| Tangible book per share | $16.56 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $1.83bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 10.38% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 9.59% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (10.38% − 3%) ÷ (9.59% − 3%) | 1.12× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $18.55 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $16.07 |
| Tangible book | $18.55 |
($16.07 + $18.55) ÷ 2 = $17.31
Base value $17.31 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $17.22 and a 10% chance it is above $30.37 in a year; a 63% chance it is higher than today's $21.33, from 22.02% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.59% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $20.08 | $17.00 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $19.97 | $16.74 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $19.99 | $18.37 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $21.08 | $17.54 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $21.12 | $17.65 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $20.85 | $17.80 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $21.33 | $17.31 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on KEY · KeyCorp company page · Call and put prices