We publish no single base value for Keysight Technologies. Our valuation methods put it between $360.57 and $431.25 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $431.25 | +41.8% | free cash flow $1.47bn, growth 25.54% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.3%; plus net cash $0.27 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $360.57 | +18.5% | earnings per share $11.50 valued at 23.73× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.19 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 1.34 (median of 73 S&P 500 Information Technology companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.22 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.15 (0.67 × 1.22 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.30% |
Free cash flow grows 25.54% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.47bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.54% | $1.84bn | 0.9066 | $1.67bn |
| Year 2 | 25.54% | $2.32bn | 0.8219 | $1.90bn |
| Year 3 | 25.54% | $2.91bn | 0.7451 | $2.17bn |
| Year 4 | 25.54% | $3.65bn | 0.6755 | $2.46bn |
| Year 5 | 25.54% | $4.58bn | 0.6124 | $2.81bn |
| Year 6 | 21.78% | $5.58bn | 0.5552 | $3.10bn |
| Year 7 | 18.03% | $6.58bn | 0.5033 | $3.31bn |
| Year 8 | 14.27% | $7.52bn | 0.4563 | $3.43bn |
| Year 9 | 10.51% | $8.31bn | 0.4137 | $3.44bn |
| Year 10 | 6.76% | $8.88bn | 0.3750 | $3.33bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.30% − 3%) | $125.16bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $46.94bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $27.62bn |
| Total present value | $74.56bn |
| Shares outstanding | 173.00m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $430.97 |
| Plus net cash per share | $0.27 |
| Value per share | $431.25 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 20.54% | Growth 25.54% | Growth 30.54% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.30% | $387.71 | $513.47 | $675.97 |
| 10.30% | $327.14 | $431.24 | $565.45 |
| 11.30% | $281.54 | $369.43 | $482.48 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.19 | 10.48% | $418.85 |
| Peer beta | 1.34 | 11.16% | $377.42 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.15 | 10.30% | $431.24 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.50 |
| Year 1 | 25.54% | $14.44 |
| Year 2 | 19.91% | $17.31 |
| Year 3 | 15.68% | $20.02 |
| Year 4 | 12.51% | $22.53 |
| Year 5 | 10.13% | $24.81 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $24.81 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.73× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $588.79 |
| Discounted at 10.30% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6330 | $360.57 |
We publish no single base value for Keysight Technologies. Our valuation methods put it between $360.57 and $431.25 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $151.85 and a 10% chance it is above $570.37 in a year; a 48% chance it is higher than today's $304.23, from 51.37% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.3% a year.
At $304.23 the price implies free cash flow growing 19.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 25.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $384.64 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $382.75 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $331.21 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $314.77 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $307.20 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $272.13 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $304.23 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on KEYS · Keysight Technologies company page · Call and put prices