We publish no single base value for Kraft Heinz. Our valuation methods put it between $14.98 and $53.24 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $53.24 | +117.5% | free cash flow $3.53bn, growth -2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.15%; stress floor $38.94 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $14.98 | -38.8% | earnings per share $2.09 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 10.0×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.12 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.27 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.18 (63% own, 37% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.45 (0.67 × 0.18 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.15% |
Free cash flow grows -2.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.53bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -2.00% | $3.46bn | 0.9332 | $3.23bn |
| Year 2 | -2.00% | $3.39bn | 0.8709 | $2.95bn |
| Year 3 | -2.00% | $3.32bn | 0.8128 | $2.70bn |
| Year 4 | -2.00% | $3.26bn | 0.7585 | $2.47bn |
| Year 5 | -2.00% | $3.19bn | 0.7078 | $2.26bn |
| Year 6 | -1.17% | $3.16bn | 0.6606 | $2.08bn |
| Year 7 | -0.33% | $3.14bn | 0.6165 | $1.94bn |
| Year 8 | 0.50% | $3.16bn | 0.5753 | $1.82bn |
| Year 9 | 1.33% | $3.20bn | 0.5369 | $1.72bn |
| Year 10 | 2.17% | $3.27bn | 0.5010 | $1.64bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.15% − 3%) | $81.11bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $40.64bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $22.82bn |
| Total present value | $63.46bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.19bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $53.24 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -7% | Growth -2% | Growth 3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.15% | $49.40 | $69.36 | $96.73 |
| 7.15% | $38.42 | $53.24 | $73.45 |
| 8.15% | $31.66 | $43.35 | $59.20 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.12 | 5.67% | $81.51 |
| Peer beta | 0.27 | 6.34% | $65.56 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.45 | 7.15% | $53.24 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.09 |
| Year 1 | -2.00% | $2.05 |
| Year 2 | -0.50% | $2.04 |
| Year 3 | 0.55% | $2.05 |
| Year 4 | 1.29% | $2.08 |
| Year 5 | 1.80% | $2.12 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.12 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 10.0×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $21.16 |
| Discounted at 7.15% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4127 | $14.98 |
We publish no single base value for Kraft Heinz. Our valuation methods put it between $14.98 and $53.24 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $17.53 and a 10% chance it is above $36.25 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $24.48, from 28.19% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.15% a year.
At $24.48 the price implies free cash flow growing -13.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -2.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $22.19 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $22.27 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $23.68 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $24.80 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $24.34 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $24.61 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $24.48 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on KHC · Kraft Heinz company page · Call and put prices