We publish no single base value for Kimberly-Clark. Our valuation methods put it between $64.47 and $68.79 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $64.47 | -39.9% | free cash flow $1.94bn, growth -8.29% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.52%; stress floor $60.06 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $68.79 | -35.8% | earnings per share $6.82 valued at 17.14× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.25 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.30 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.53 (0.67 × 0.30 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.52% |
Free cash flow grows -8.29% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.94bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -8.29% | $1.78bn | 0.9301 | $1.66bn |
| Year 2 | -8.29% | $1.64bn | 0.8651 | $1.41bn |
| Year 3 | -8.29% | $1.50bn | 0.8046 | $1.21bn |
| Year 4 | -8.29% | $1.38bn | 0.7484 | $1.03bn |
| Year 5 | -8.29% | $1.26bn | 0.6961 | $877.88m |
| Year 6 | -6.41% | $1.18bn | 0.6474 | $764.19m |
| Year 7 | -4.53% | $1.13bn | 0.6022 | $678.60m |
| Year 8 | -2.64% | $1.10bn | 0.5601 | $614.48m |
| Year 9 | -0.76% | $1.09bn | 0.5209 | $567.16m |
| Year 10 | 1.12% | $1.10bn | 0.4845 | $533.42m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.52% − 3%) | $25.12bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $12.17bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $9.34bn |
| Total present value | $21.51bn |
| Shares outstanding | 333.70m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $64.47 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -13.29% | Growth -8.29% | Growth -3.29% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.52% | $57.43 | $80.62 | $112.78 |
| 7.52% | $46.65 | $64.47 | $89.00 |
| 8.52% | $39.69 | $54.10 | $73.80 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.25 | 6.25% | $86.43 |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $74.46 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.53 | 7.52% | $64.47 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.82 |
| Year 1 | -8.29% | $6.26 |
| Year 2 | -4.90% | $5.95 |
| Year 3 | -2.53% | $5.80 |
| Year 4 | -0.87% | $5.75 |
| Year 5 | 0.29% | $5.77 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.77 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.14× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $98.83 |
| Discounted at 7.52% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4366 | $68.79 |
We publish no single base value for Kimberly-Clark. Our valuation methods put it between $64.47 and $68.79 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $77.20 and a 10% chance it is above $159.11 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $107.19, from 28.07% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.52% a year.
At $107.19 the price implies free cash flow growing -0.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -8.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $94.36 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $97.59 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $105.57 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $110.15 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $107.94 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $108.43 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $107.19 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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