We publish no single base value for Kroger. Our valuation methods put it between $45.38 and $74.27 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $74.27 | +6.4% | free cash flow $2.27bn, growth 1.58% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.74%; stress floor $50.09 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $45.38 | -35.0% | earnings per share $5.19 valued at 11.38× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.36 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.37 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.58 (0.67 × 0.37 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.74% |
Free cash flow grows 1.58% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.27bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.58% | $2.31bn | 0.9282 | $2.14bn |
| Year 2 | 1.58% | $2.34bn | 0.8615 | $2.02bn |
| Year 3 | 1.58% | $2.38bn | 0.7996 | $1.90bn |
| Year 4 | 1.58% | $2.42bn | 0.7422 | $1.80bn |
| Year 5 | 1.58% | $2.46bn | 0.6888 | $1.69bn |
| Year 6 | 1.82% | $2.50bn | 0.6393 | $1.60bn |
| Year 7 | 2.05% | $2.55bn | 0.5934 | $1.52bn |
| Year 8 | 2.29% | $2.61bn | 0.5508 | $1.44bn |
| Year 9 | 2.53% | $2.68bn | 0.5112 | $1.37bn |
| Year 10 | 2.76% | $2.75bn | 0.4745 | $1.31bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.74% − 3%) | $59.79bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $28.37bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.78bn |
| Total present value | $45.15bn |
| Shares outstanding | 608.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $74.27 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.42% | Growth 1.58% | Growth 6.58% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.74% | $67.62 | $93.86 | — |
| 7.74% | $54.09 | $74.27 | — |
| 8.74% | $45.24 | $61.49 | $83.32 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $93.62 |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $91.44 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.58 | 7.74% | $74.27 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.19 |
| Year 1 | 1.58% | $5.27 |
| Year 2 | 2.01% | $5.38 |
| Year 3 | 2.30% | $5.50 |
| Year 4 | 2.51% | $5.64 |
| Year 5 | 2.66% | $5.79 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.79 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.38× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $65.88 |
| Discounted at 7.74% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4517 | $45.38 |
We publish no single base value for Kroger. Our valuation methods put it between $45.38 and $74.27 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $49.52 and a 10% chance it is above $105.01 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $69.81, from 29.18% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.74% a year.
At $69.81 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $59.03 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $61.64 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $63.63 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $66.77 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $66.76 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $67.70 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $69.81 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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