We publish no single base value for Leidos. Our valuation methods put it between $133.33 and $271.85 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $271.85 | +107.3% | free cash flow $1.96bn, growth 2.67% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.82%; stress floor $187.57 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $133.33 | +1.7% | earnings per share $12.68 valued at 13.97× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.55 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.74 (60% own, 40% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.82 (0.67 × 0.74 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.82% |
Free cash flow grows 2.67% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.96bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.67% | $2.01bn | 0.9189 | $1.85bn |
| Year 2 | 2.67% | $2.07bn | 0.8445 | $1.74bn |
| Year 3 | 2.67% | $2.12bn | 0.7760 | $1.65bn |
| Year 4 | 2.67% | $2.18bn | 0.7131 | $1.55bn |
| Year 5 | 2.67% | $2.23bn | 0.6553 | $1.46bn |
| Year 6 | 2.73% | $2.30bn | 0.6022 | $1.38bn |
| Year 7 | 2.78% | $2.36bn | 0.5534 | $1.31bn |
| Year 8 | 2.83% | $2.43bn | 0.5085 | $1.23bn |
| Year 9 | 2.89% | $2.50bn | 0.4673 | $1.17bn |
| Year 10 | 2.94% | $2.57bn | 0.4295 | $1.10bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.82% − 3%) | $45.49bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $19.53bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $14.45bn |
| Total present value | $33.98bn |
| Shares outstanding | 125.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $271.85 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.33% | Growth 2.67% | Growth 7.67% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.82% | $239.33 | $328.05 | — |
| 8.82% | $200.28 | $271.85 | — |
| 9.82% | $172.59 | $232.12 | $311.58 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.55 | 7.61% | $343.32 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $235.56 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.82 | 8.82% | $271.85 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.68 |
| Year 1 | 2.67% | $13.01 |
| Year 2 | 2.77% | $13.37 |
| Year 3 | 2.84% | $13.75 |
| Year 4 | 2.89% | $14.15 |
| Year 5 | 2.92% | $14.56 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $14.56 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.97× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $203.46 |
| Discounted at 8.82% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5260 | $133.33 |
We publish no single base value for Leidos. Our valuation methods put it between $133.33 and $271.85 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $87.95 and a 10% chance it is above $207.50 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $131.11, from 33.32% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.82% a year.
At $131.11 the price implies free cash flow growing -9.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $117.74 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $121.68 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $124.85 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $136.08 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $142.98 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $132.68 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $131.11 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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