We publish no single base value for Lennar. Our valuation methods put it between $25.68 and $26.41 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $26.41 | -68.4% | free cash flow $908.25m, growth -8.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.57%; stress floor $27.50 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $25.68 | -69.3% | earnings per share $4.94 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.8×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.38 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.31 (76% own, 24% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.21 (0.67 × 1.31 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.57% |
Free cash flow grows -8.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $908.25m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -8.70% | $829.23m | 0.9044 | $749.93m |
| Year 2 | -8.70% | $757.09m | 0.8179 | $619.20m |
| Year 3 | -8.70% | $691.22m | 0.7397 | $511.27m |
| Year 4 | -8.70% | $631.09m | 0.6689 | $422.14m |
| Year 5 | -8.70% | $576.18m | 0.6049 | $348.56m |
| Year 6 | -6.75% | $537.29m | 0.5471 | $293.94m |
| Year 7 | -4.80% | $511.50m | 0.4948 | $253.07m |
| Year 8 | -2.85% | $496.92m | 0.4474 | $222.35m |
| Year 9 | -0.90% | $492.45m | 0.4047 | $199.27m |
| Year 10 | 1.05% | $497.62m | 0.3660 | $182.11m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.57% − 3%) | $6.77bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $2.48bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $3.80bn |
| Total present value | $6.28bn |
| Shares outstanding | 237.76m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $26.41 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -13.7% | Growth -8.7% | Growth -3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.57% | $22.13 | $29.75 | $40.11 |
| 10.57% | $19.86 | $26.41 | $35.23 |
| 11.57% | $18.10 | $23.81 | $31.47 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.38 | 11.34% | $24.37 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $28.10 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.21 | 10.57% | $26.41 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.94 |
| Year 1 | -8.70% | $4.51 |
| Year 2 | -4.60% | $4.30 |
| Year 3 | -1.94% | $4.22 |
| Year 4 | -0.21% | $4.21 |
| Year 5 | 0.91% | $4.25 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.25 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.8×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $42.45 |
| Discounted at 10.57% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6530 | $25.68 |
We publish no single base value for Lennar. Our valuation methods put it between $25.68 and $26.41 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $45.96 and a 10% chance it is above $150.68 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $83.58, from 46.09% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.57% a year.
At $83.58 the price implies free cash flow growing 11.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -8.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $79.81 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $76.69 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $77.08 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $84.92 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $86.94 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $88.74 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $83.58 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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