On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Lumentum is $2,135.99 a share, 241.9% above its $624.65 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the free cash flow base is 0.57% of market cap (floor 1%) — the terminal value carries the answer, not the cash flows |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $2,135.99 | +241.9% | earnings per share $24.94 valued at 25.57× (the stock's own median P/E) in 7 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $24.94 |
| Year 1 | 70.00% | $42.40 |
| Year 2 | 49.90% | $63.55 |
| Year 3 | 35.83% | $86.33 |
| Year 4 | 25.98% | $108.75 |
| Year 5 | 19.09% | $129.51 |
| Year 6 | 14.26% | $147.98 |
| Year 7 | 10.88% | $164.09 |
| Earnings per share in year 7 | $164.09 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 25.57× |
| Value in 7 years = earnings × P/E | $4,195.66 |
| Discounted at 10.12% over 7 years: ÷ 1.9643 | $2,135.99 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $2,135.99 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $2,135.99
Base value $2,135.99 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $104.76 and a 10% chance it is above $1,522.84 in a year; a 34% chance it is higher than today's $624.65, from 103.9% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.12% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $1,085.42 | $1,459.20 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $1,103.36 | $1,465.96 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $824.13 | $1,679.21 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $756.17 | $1,687.86 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $840.70 | $1,678.25 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $538.59 | $2,176.10 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $624.65 | $2,135.99 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on LITE · Lumentum company page · Call and put prices