We publish no single base value for Lam Research. Our valuation methods put it between $297.25 and $321.53 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $321.53 | +37.5% | free cash flow $6.61bn, growth 33.36% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.88%; plus net cash $2.95 a share; stress floor $106.01 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $297.25 | +27.1% | earnings per share $9.65 valued at 22.1× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.97 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.34) |
| Peer beta | 1.32 (median of 73 S&P 500 Information Technology companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.75 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.50 (0.67 × 1.75 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.88% |
Free cash flow grows 33.36% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.61bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 33.36% | $8.82bn | 0.8938 | $7.88bn |
| Year 2 | 33.36% | $11.76bn | 0.7989 | $9.40bn |
| Year 3 | 33.36% | $15.68bn | 0.7141 | $11.20bn |
| Year 4 | 33.36% | $20.92bn | 0.6382 | $13.35bn |
| Year 5 | 33.36% | $27.90bn | 0.5705 | $15.91bn |
| Year 6 | 28.30% | $35.79bn | 0.5099 | $18.25bn |
| Year 7 | 23.24% | $44.11bn | 0.4558 | $20.10bn |
| Year 8 | 18.18% | $52.13bn | 0.4074 | $21.23bn |
| Year 9 | 13.12% | $58.97bn | 0.3641 | $21.47bn |
| Year 10 | 8.06% | $63.72bn | 0.3254 | $20.74bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.88% − 3%) | $739.07bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $240.53bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $159.54bn |
| Total present value | $400.06bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.26bn |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $318.58 |
| Plus net cash per share | $2.95 |
| Value per share | $321.53 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 28.36% | Growth 33.36% | Growth 38.36% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.88% | $287.08 | $373.61 | $483.86 |
| 11.88% | $248.05 | $321.53 | $414.97 |
| 12.88% | $217.29 | $280.53 | $360.81 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.97 | 14.00% | $244.15 |
| Peer beta | 1.32 | 11.07% | $362.67 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.50 | 11.88% | $321.53 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.65 |
| Year 1 | 33.36% | $12.87 |
| Year 2 | 24.25% | $15.99 |
| Year 3 | 17.88% | $18.85 |
| Year 4 | 13.41% | $21.38 |
| Year 5 | 10.29% | $23.58 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $23.58 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 22.1× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $521.05 |
| Discounted at 11.88% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7529 | $297.25 |
We publish no single base value for Lam Research. Our valuation methods put it between $297.25 and $321.53 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $80.12 and a 10% chance it is above $510.07 in a year; a 42% chance it is higher than today's $233.78, from 71.85% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.88% a year.
At $233.78 the price implies free cash flow growing 27.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 33.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $347.49 | $232.35 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $318.84 | $233.34 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $263.94 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $230.10 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $239.11 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $200.44 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $233.78 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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