On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Lululemon Athletica is $123.64 a share, 18.4% above its $104.46 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $123.64 | +18.4% | free cash flow $1.35bn, growth -4.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.45%; stress floor $109.29 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 30.2x is 2.8x the 10.9x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.83 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.33) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.94 (62% own, 38% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.96 (0.67 × 0.94 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.45% |
Free cash flow grows -4.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.35bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.30% | $1.30bn | 0.9137 | $1.18bn |
| Year 2 | -4.30% | $1.24bn | 0.8348 | $1.04bn |
| Year 3 | -4.30% | $1.19bn | 0.7627 | $905.35m |
| Year 4 | -4.30% | $1.14bn | 0.6968 | $791.61m |
| Year 5 | -4.30% | $1.09bn | 0.6367 | $692.16m |
| Year 6 | -3.08% | $1.05bn | 0.5817 | $612.90m |
| Year 7 | -1.87% | $1.03bn | 0.5315 | $549.53m |
| Year 8 | -0.65% | $1.03bn | 0.4856 | $498.82m |
| Year 9 | 0.57% | $1.03bn | 0.4437 | $458.33m |
| Year 10 | 1.78% | $1.05bn | 0.4054 | $426.23m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.45% − 3%) | $16.79bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $6.81bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.15bn |
| Total present value | $13.96bn |
| Shares outstanding | 112.92m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $123.64 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.3% | Growth -4.3% | Growth 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.45% | $105.68 | $144.27 | $196.72 |
| 9.45% | $91.61 | $123.64 | $166.91 |
| 10.45% | $81.21 | $108.46 | $145.07 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.83 | 8.87% | $134.87 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $112.29 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.96 | 9.45% | $123.64 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $123.64 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $123.64
Base value $123.64 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $47.51 and a 10% chance it is above $200.93 in a year; a 46% chance it is higher than today's $104.46, from 55.97% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.45% a year.
At $104.46 the price implies free cash flow growing -7.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $94.46 | $150.63 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $94.50 | $147.33 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $97.10 | $122.09 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $99.01 | $123.53 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $107.24 | $127.17 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $110.79 | $128.43 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $104.46 | $123.64 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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