We publish no single base value for Las Vegas Sands. Our valuation methods put it between $33.31 and $41.91 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $41.91 | +6.6% | free cash flow $2.42bn, growth -3.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.27%; stress floor $35.90 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $33.31 | -15.3% | earnings per share $2.81 valued at 19.02× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.77 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.28) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.89 (68% own, 32% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.92 (0.67 × 0.89 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.27% |
Free cash flow grows -3.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.42bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -3.50% | $2.33bn | 0.9152 | $2.13bn |
| Year 2 | -3.50% | $2.25bn | 0.8375 | $1.88bn |
| Year 3 | -3.50% | $2.17bn | 0.7665 | $1.66bn |
| Year 4 | -3.50% | $2.10bn | 0.7014 | $1.47bn |
| Year 5 | -3.50% | $2.02bn | 0.6419 | $1.30bn |
| Year 6 | -2.42% | $1.97bn | 0.5875 | $1.16bn |
| Year 7 | -1.33% | $1.95bn | 0.5376 | $1.05bn |
| Year 8 | -0.25% | $1.94bn | 0.4920 | $955.40m |
| Year 9 | 0.83% | $1.96bn | 0.4503 | $881.63m |
| Year 10 | 1.92% | $2.00bn | 0.4121 | $822.30m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.27% − 3%) | $32.78bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $13.51bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.31bn |
| Total present value | $26.82bn |
| Shares outstanding | 640.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $41.91 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -8.5% | Growth -3.5% | Growth 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.27% | $36.00 | $49.24 | $67.24 |
| 9.27% | $30.99 | $41.91 | $56.67 |
| 10.27% | $27.33 | $36.57 | $49.00 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $46.57 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $37.04 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.92 | 9.27% | $41.91 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.81 |
| Year 1 | -3.50% | $2.72 |
| Year 2 | -1.55% | $2.67 |
| Year 3 | -0.18% | $2.67 |
| Year 4 | 0.77% | $2.69 |
| Year 5 | 1.44% | $2.73 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.73 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.02× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $51.90 |
| Discounted at 9.27% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5578 | $33.31 |
We publish no single base value for Las Vegas Sands. Our valuation methods put it between $33.31 and $41.91 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $28.43 and a 10% chance it is above $59.93 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $39.33, from 28.94% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.27% a year.
At $39.33 the price implies free cash flow growing -4.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -3.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $36.23 | $58.58 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $36.17 | $60.50 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $38.01 | $55.67 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $35.68 | $42.72 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $36.97 | $43.16 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $40.73 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $39.33 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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