On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Live Nation Entertainment is $94.28 a share, 47.7% below its $180.14 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $94.28 | -47.7% | free cash flow $885.16m, growth 13.47% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.95%; stress floor $48.96 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | the model values the equity at -$19.22 — a negative figure is not a low price, it is a projection of losses, and no share price follows from it |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.14 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.11 (83% own, 17% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.07 (0.67 × 1.11 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.95% |
Free cash flow grows 13.47% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $885.16m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.47% | $1.00bn | 0.9095 | $913.54m |
| Year 2 | 13.47% | $1.14bn | 0.8273 | $942.83m |
| Year 3 | 13.47% | $1.29bn | 0.7524 | $973.06m |
| Year 4 | 13.47% | $1.47bn | 0.6844 | $1.00bn |
| Year 5 | 13.47% | $1.67bn | 0.6225 | $1.04bn |
| Year 6 | 11.73% | $1.86bn | 0.5662 | $1.05bn |
| Year 7 | 9.98% | $2.05bn | 0.5150 | $1.05bn |
| Year 8 | 8.23% | $2.21bn | 0.4684 | $1.04bn |
| Year 9 | 6.49% | $2.36bn | 0.4260 | $1.00bn |
| Year 10 | 4.75% | $2.47bn | 0.3875 | $957.08m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.95% − 3%) | $36.63bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.19bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $9.98bn |
| Total present value | $24.17bn |
| Shares outstanding | 256.38m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $94.28 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.47% | Growth 13.47% | Growth 18.47% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.95% | — | $111.82 | $149.60 |
| 9.95% | — | $94.28 | $125.41 |
| 10.95% | $61.18 | $81.22 | $107.44 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.14 | 10.26% | $89.77 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $104.67 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.07 | 9.95% | $94.28 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $94.28 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $94.28
Base value $94.28 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $149.39 and a 10% chance it is above $253.26 in a year; a 65% chance it is higher than today's $180.14, from 20.49% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.95% a year.
At $180.14 the price implies free cash flow growing 25.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $168.77 | $142.11 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $170.33 | $142.11 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $170.51 | $142.11 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $173.44 | $142.11 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $177.89 | $142.11 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $175.25 | $98.37 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $180.14 | $94.28 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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