We publish no single base value for Mastercard. Our valuation methods put it between $582.59 and $688.69 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $582.59 | -10.7% | free cash flow $15.43bn, growth 14% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9%; stress floor $284.99 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $688.69 | +5.5% | earnings per share $20.06 valued at 34.24× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.78 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 0.84 (median of 8 S&P 500 Transaction & Payment Processing Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.79 (85% own, 15% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.86 (0.67 × 0.79 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.00% |
Free cash flow grows 14.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.43bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.00% | $17.59bn | 0.9174 | $16.14bn |
| Year 2 | 14.00% | $20.05bn | 0.8417 | $16.88bn |
| Year 3 | 14.00% | $22.86bn | 0.7722 | $17.65bn |
| Year 4 | 14.00% | $26.06bn | 0.7084 | $18.46bn |
| Year 5 | 14.00% | $29.71bn | 0.6499 | $19.31bn |
| Year 6 | 12.17% | $33.32bn | 0.5963 | $19.87bn |
| Year 7 | 10.33% | $36.77bn | 0.5470 | $20.11bn |
| Year 8 | 8.50% | $39.89bn | 0.5019 | $20.02bn |
| Year 9 | 6.67% | $42.55bn | 0.4604 | $19.59bn |
| Year 10 | 4.83% | $44.61bn | 0.4224 | $18.84bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.00% − 3%) | $765.78bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $323.47bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $186.88bn |
| Total present value | $510.35bn |
| Shares outstanding | 876.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $582.59 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 9% | Growth 14% | Growth 19% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00% | — | $710.73 | $955.54 |
| 9.00% | — | $582.59 | $778.75 |
| 10.00% | — | $491.53 | $653.33 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.78 | 8.64% | $623.42 |
| Peer beta | 0.84 | 8.91% | $592.33 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.86 | 9.00% | $582.59 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $20.06 |
| Year 1 | 14.00% | $22.87 |
| Year 2 | 10.70% | $25.31 |
| Year 3 | 8.39% | $27.44 |
| Year 4 | 6.77% | $29.29 |
| Year 5 | 5.64% | $30.95 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $30.95 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 34.24× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,059.63 |
| Discounted at 9.00% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5386 | $688.69 |
We publish no single base value for Mastercard. Our valuation methods put it between $582.59 and $688.69 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $523.07 and a 10% chance it is above $924.80 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $652.60, from 22.12% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9% a year.
At $652.60 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 14.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $552.26 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $589.14 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $617.42 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $623.60 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $638.01 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $652.70 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $652.60 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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