We publish no single base value for Marriott International. Our valuation methods put it between $226.80 and $248.29 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $226.80 | -46.6% | free cash flow $3.48bn, growth 5.77% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.12%; stress floor $149.64 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $248.29 | -41.5% | earnings per share $12.05 valued at 26.54× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'U.S. & Canada' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.15 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 1.39 (median of 7 S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.16 (93% own, 7% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.11 (0.67 × 1.16 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.12% |
Free cash flow grows 5.77% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.48bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.77% | $3.69bn | 0.9081 | $3.35bn |
| Year 2 | 5.77% | $3.90bn | 0.8246 | $3.21bn |
| Year 3 | 5.77% | $4.12bn | 0.7488 | $3.09bn |
| Year 4 | 5.77% | $4.36bn | 0.6799 | $2.97bn |
| Year 5 | 5.77% | $4.61bn | 0.6174 | $2.85bn |
| Year 6 | 5.31% | $4.86bn | 0.5606 | $2.72bn |
| Year 7 | 4.85% | $5.09bn | 0.5091 | $2.59bn |
| Year 8 | 4.38% | $5.32bn | 0.4623 | $2.46bn |
| Year 9 | 3.92% | $5.53bn | 0.4198 | $2.32bn |
| Year 10 | 3.46% | $5.72bn | 0.3812 | $2.18bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.12% − 3%) | $82.64bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $31.50bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $27.74bn |
| Total present value | $59.24bn |
| Shares outstanding | 261.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $226.80 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.77% | Growth 5.77% | Growth 10.77% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.12% | $196.10 | $265.01 | — |
| 10.12% | $169.23 | $226.80 | — |
| 11.12% | $148.94 | $198.05 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.15 | 10.30% | $221.04 |
| Peer beta | 1.39 | 11.38% | $191.70 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.11 | 10.12% | $226.80 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.05 |
| Year 1 | 5.77% | $12.75 |
| Year 2 | 5.08% | $13.39 |
| Year 3 | 4.56% | $14.00 |
| Year 4 | 4.17% | $14.59 |
| Year 5 | 3.88% | $15.15 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $15.15 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 26.54× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $402.16 |
| Discounted at 10.12% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6197 | $248.29 |
We publish no single base value for Marriott International. Our valuation methods put it between $226.80 and $248.29 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $347.73 and a 10% chance it is above $604.28 in a year; a 64% chance it is higher than today's $424.66, from 21.45% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.12% a year.
At $424.66 the price implies free cash flow growing 16.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $358.96 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $365.88 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $388.05 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $390.71 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $399.30 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $416.47 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $424.66 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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