We publish no single base value for Masco. Our valuation methods put it between $50.40 and $88.51 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $88.51 | +4.8% | free cash flow $1.37bn, growth 0.95% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.21%; stress floor $67.94 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $50.40 | -40.3% | earnings per share $4.72 valued at 15.83× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.20 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 1.18 (median of 6 S&P 500 Building Products companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.19 (41% own, 59% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.13 (0.67 × 1.19 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.21% |
Free cash flow grows 0.95% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.37bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.95% | $1.38bn | 0.9073 | $1.25bn |
| Year 2 | 0.95% | $1.40bn | 0.8232 | $1.15bn |
| Year 3 | 0.95% | $1.41bn | 0.7469 | $1.05bn |
| Year 4 | 0.95% | $1.42bn | 0.6777 | $964.24m |
| Year 5 | 0.95% | $1.44bn | 0.6149 | $883.18m |
| Year 6 | 1.29% | $1.45bn | 0.5579 | $811.67m |
| Year 7 | 1.63% | $1.48bn | 0.5062 | $748.47m |
| Year 8 | 1.97% | $1.51bn | 0.4593 | $692.52m |
| Year 9 | 2.32% | $1.54bn | 0.4167 | $642.89m |
| Year 10 | 2.66% | $1.58bn | 0.3781 | $598.81m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.21% − 3%) | $22.61bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.55bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.80bn |
| Total present value | $17.35bn |
| Shares outstanding | 196.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $88.51 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.05% | Growth 0.95% | Growth 5.95% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.21% | $75.67 | $102.39 | $138.25 |
| 10.21% | $66.03 | $88.51 | $118.53 |
| 11.21% | $58.70 | $77.99 | $103.63 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.20 | 10.53% | $84.89 |
| Peer beta | 1.18 | 10.44% | $85.89 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.13 | 10.21% | $88.51 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.72 |
| Year 1 | 0.95% | $4.77 |
| Year 2 | 1.57% | $4.84 |
| Year 3 | 2.00% | $4.94 |
| Year 4 | 2.30% | $5.05 |
| Year 5 | 2.51% | $5.18 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.18 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 15.83× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $81.96 |
| Discounted at 10.21% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6263 | $50.40 |
We publish no single base value for Masco. Our valuation methods put it between $50.40 and $88.51 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $58.91 and a 10% chance it is above $133.62 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $84.48, from 31.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.21% a year.
At $84.48 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $68.36 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $68.75 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $72.87 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $76.01 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $80.64 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $82.22 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $84.48 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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