We publish no single base value for McDonald's. Our valuation methods put it between $183.45 and $228.46 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $183.45 | -33.0% | free cash flow $7.49bn, growth 1.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.28%; stress floor $129.70 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $228.46 | -16.5% | earnings per share $12.94 valued at 23.99× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'International Operated Markets' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.42 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 0.95 (median of 5 S&P 500 Restaurants companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.55 (75% own, 25% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.70 (0.67 × 0.55 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.28% |
Free cash flow grows 1.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.49bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.10% | $7.57bn | 0.9235 | $7.00bn |
| Year 2 | 1.10% | $7.66bn | 0.8529 | $6.53bn |
| Year 3 | 1.10% | $7.74bn | 0.7877 | $6.10bn |
| Year 4 | 1.10% | $7.83bn | 0.7275 | $5.69bn |
| Year 5 | 1.10% | $7.91bn | 0.6718 | $5.32bn |
| Year 6 | 1.42% | $8.03bn | 0.6205 | $4.98bn |
| Year 7 | 1.73% | $8.16bn | 0.5730 | $4.68bn |
| Year 8 | 2.05% | $8.33bn | 0.5292 | $4.41bn |
| Year 9 | 2.37% | $8.53bn | 0.4887 | $4.17bn |
| Year 10 | 2.68% | $8.76bn | 0.4514 | $3.95bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.28% − 3%) | $170.84bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $77.11bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $52.82bn |
| Total present value | $129.93bn |
| Shares outstanding | 708.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $183.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.9% | Growth 1.1% | Growth 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.28% | $163.36 | $225.49 | — |
| 8.28% | $134.33 | $183.45 | $249.67 |
| 9.28% | $114.46 | $154.76 | $208.83 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.42 | 7.02% | $239.84 |
| Peer beta | 0.95 | 9.40% | $151.81 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.70 | 8.28% | $183.45 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.94 |
| Year 1 | 1.10% | $13.08 |
| Year 2 | 1.58% | $13.29 |
| Year 3 | 1.93% | $13.54 |
| Year 4 | 2.20% | $13.84 |
| Year 5 | 2.40% | $14.17 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $14.17 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.99× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $340.05 |
| Discounted at 8.28% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4885 | $228.46 |
We publish no single base value for McDonald's. Our valuation methods put it between $183.45 and $228.46 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $207.83 and a 10% chance it is above $397.39 in a year; a 58% chance it is higher than today's $273.63, from 25.16% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.28% a year.
At $273.63 the price implies free cash flow growing 7.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $231.89 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $235.23 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $242.97 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $248.46 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $258.12 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $276.52 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $273.63 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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