We publish no single base value for Microchip Technology. Our valuation methods put it between $104.36 and $152.15 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $152.15 | +145.1% | free cash flow $1.46bn, growth 33.02% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.11%; stress floor $50.05 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $104.36 | +68.1% | earnings per share $3.63 valued at 19.57× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.84 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.28) |
| Peer beta | 1.78 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.83 (82% own, 18% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.55 (0.67 × 1.83 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.11% |
Free cash flow grows 33.02% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.46bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 33.02% | $1.94bn | 0.8920 | $1.73bn |
| Year 2 | 33.02% | $2.58bn | 0.7957 | $2.05bn |
| Year 3 | 33.02% | $3.43bn | 0.7098 | $2.43bn |
| Year 4 | 33.02% | $4.56bn | 0.6331 | $2.89bn |
| Year 5 | 33.02% | $6.06bn | 0.5648 | $3.42bn |
| Year 6 | 28.02% | $7.76bn | 0.5038 | $3.91bn |
| Year 7 | 23.01% | $9.55bn | 0.4494 | $4.29bn |
| Year 8 | 18.01% | $11.26bn | 0.4009 | $4.52bn |
| Year 9 | 13.01% | $12.73bn | 0.3576 | $4.55bn |
| Year 10 | 8.00% | $13.75bn | 0.3190 | $4.39bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.11% − 3%) | $155.53bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $49.61bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $34.17bn |
| Total present value | $83.78bn |
| Shares outstanding | 550.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $152.15 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 28.02% | Growth 33.02% | Growth 38.02% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.11% | $135.28 | $176.40 | $228.78 |
| 12.11% | $117.12 | $152.15 | $196.71 |
| 13.11% | $102.72 | $132.96 | $171.35 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.84 | 13.41% | $127.89 |
| Peer beta | 1.78 | 13.14% | $132.36 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.55 | 12.11% | $152.15 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.63 |
| Year 1 | 33.02% | $4.82 |
| Year 2 | 25.52% | $6.05 |
| Year 3 | 19.89% | $7.26 |
| Year 4 | 15.66% | $8.39 |
| Year 5 | 12.50% | $9.44 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.44 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.57× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $184.79 |
| Discounted at 12.11% over 5 years: ÷ 1.7706 | $104.36 |
We publish no single base value for Microchip Technology. Our valuation methods put it between $104.36 and $152.15 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $30.90 and a 10% chance it is above $119.53 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $62.08, from 52.51% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.11% a year.
At $62.08 the price implies free cash flow growing 16.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 33.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $81.32 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $75.55 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $73.85 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $74.05 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $77.34 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $58.35 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $62.08 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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