We publish no single base value for Moody's Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $209.26 and $364.60 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $209.26 | -58.7% | free cash flow $2.98bn, growth 0.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.44%; stress floor $162.45 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $364.60 | -28.0% | earnings per share $16.77 valued at 32.91× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.30 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.13) |
| Peer beta | 0.96 (median of 7 S&P 500 Financial Exchanges & Data companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.27 (90% own, 10% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.18 (0.67 × 1.27 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.44% |
Free cash flow grows 0.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.98bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.80% | $3.00bn | 0.9055 | $2.72bn |
| Year 2 | 0.80% | $3.02bn | 0.8199 | $2.48bn |
| Year 3 | 0.80% | $3.05bn | 0.7424 | $2.26bn |
| Year 4 | 0.80% | $3.07bn | 0.6722 | $2.07bn |
| Year 5 | 0.80% | $3.10bn | 0.6087 | $1.89bn |
| Year 6 | 1.17% | $3.13bn | 0.5511 | $1.73bn |
| Year 7 | 1.53% | $3.18bn | 0.4990 | $1.59bn |
| Year 8 | 1.90% | $3.24bn | 0.4518 | $1.47bn |
| Year 9 | 2.27% | $3.32bn | 0.4091 | $1.36bn |
| Year 10 | 2.63% | $3.40bn | 0.3705 | $1.26bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.44% − 3%) | $47.12bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $17.46bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $18.81bn |
| Total present value | $36.27bn |
| Shares outstanding | 173.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $209.26 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.2% | Growth 0.8% | Growth 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.44% | $178.40 | $240.86 | $324.63 |
| 10.44% | $156.44 | $209.26 | $279.75 |
| 11.44% | $139.60 | $185.12 | $245.57 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.30 | 10.98% | $195.48 |
| Peer beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $240.50 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.18 | 10.44% | $209.26 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $16.77 |
| Year 1 | 0.80% | $16.90 |
| Year 2 | 1.35% | $17.13 |
| Year 3 | 1.76% | $17.43 |
| Year 4 | 2.07% | $17.79 |
| Year 5 | 2.30% | $18.20 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $18.20 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 32.91× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $599.03 |
| Discounted at 10.44% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6430 | $364.60 |
We publish no single base value for Moody's Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $209.26 and $364.60 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $387.45 and a 10% chance it is above $758.99 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $506.56, from 26.1% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.44% a year.
At $506.56 the price implies free cash flow growing 16.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $441.36 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $464.23 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $485.07 | $502.31 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $483.45 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $493.91 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $505.67 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $506.56 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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