We publish no single base value for Mondelez International. Our valuation methods put it between $47.73 and $61.76 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $61.76 | -7.2% | free cash flow $3.66bn, growth 2.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.56%; stress floor $40.19 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $47.73 | -28.3% | earnings per share $3.05 valued at 19.75× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.35 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 0.26 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.32 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.54 (0.67 × 0.32 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.56% |
Free cash flow grows 2.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.66bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.30% | $3.74bn | 0.9297 | $3.48bn |
| Year 2 | 2.30% | $3.83bn | 0.8644 | $3.31bn |
| Year 3 | 2.30% | $3.92bn | 0.8036 | $3.15bn |
| Year 4 | 2.30% | $4.01bn | 0.7471 | $2.99bn |
| Year 5 | 2.30% | $4.10bn | 0.6946 | $2.85bn |
| Year 6 | 2.42% | $4.20bn | 0.6458 | $2.71bn |
| Year 7 | 2.53% | $4.30bn | 0.6004 | $2.58bn |
| Year 8 | 2.65% | $4.42bn | 0.5582 | $2.47bn |
| Year 9 | 2.77% | $4.54bn | 0.5190 | $2.36bn |
| Year 10 | 2.88% | $4.67bn | 0.4825 | $2.25bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.56% − 3%) | $105.51bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $50.91bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $28.15bn |
| Total present value | $79.05bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.28bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $61.76 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.7% | Growth 2.3% | Growth 7.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.56% | $56.85 | $79.00 | — |
| 7.56% | $44.92 | $61.76 | — |
| 8.56% | $37.27 | $50.72 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.35 | 6.71% | $75.92 |
| Peer beta | 0.26 | 6.30% | $85.19 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.54 | 7.56% | $61.76 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.05 |
| Year 1 | 2.30% | $3.12 |
| Year 2 | 2.54% | $3.20 |
| Year 3 | 2.70% | $3.29 |
| Year 4 | 2.81% | $3.38 |
| Year 5 | 2.88% | $3.48 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.48 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.75× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $68.71 |
| Discounted at 7.56% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4396 | $47.73 |
We publish no single base value for Mondelez International. Our valuation methods put it between $47.73 and $61.76 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $52.15 and a 10% chance it is above $93.52 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $66.56, from 22.67% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.56% a year.
At $66.56 the price implies free cash flow growing 3.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $58.19 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $60.41 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $63.91 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $63.80 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $64.94 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $66.02 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $66.56 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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