We publish no single base value for Meta Platforms. Our valuation methods put it between $606.14 and $829.77 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $606.14 | -2.8% | free cash flow $28.65bn, growth 26.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.08%; plus net cash $1.16 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $829.77 | +33.1% | earnings per share $29.12 valued at 23.43× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Family of Apps' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.27 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.33) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.15 (62% own, 38% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.10 (0.67 × 1.15 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.08% |
Free cash flow grows 26.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $28.65bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 26.10% | $36.13bn | 0.9084 | $32.82bn |
| Year 2 | 26.10% | $45.56bn | 0.8252 | $37.60bn |
| Year 3 | 26.10% | $57.45bn | 0.7497 | $43.07bn |
| Year 4 | 26.10% | $72.44bn | 0.6810 | $49.33bn |
| Year 5 | 26.10% | $91.35bn | 0.6187 | $56.51bn |
| Year 6 | 22.25% | $111.67bn | 0.5620 | $62.76bn |
| Year 7 | 18.40% | $132.22bn | 0.5106 | $67.51bn |
| Year 8 | 14.55% | $151.46bn | 0.4638 | $70.25bn |
| Year 9 | 10.70% | $167.67bn | 0.4213 | $70.64bn |
| Year 10 | 6.85% | $179.15bn | 0.3828 | $68.57bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.08% − 3%) | $2.61tn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $997.56bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $559.06bn |
| Total present value | $1.56tn |
| Shares outstanding | 2.57bn |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $604.98 |
| Plus net cash per share | $1.16 |
| Value per share | $606.14 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 21.1% | Growth 26.1% | Growth 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.08% | $547.95 | $725.70 | $955.34 |
| 10.08% | $459.81 | $606.14 | $794.74 |
| 11.08% | $394.03 | $517.05 | $675.24 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.27 | 10.84% | $535.87 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $694.10 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.10 | 10.08% | $606.14 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $29.12 |
| Year 1 | 26.10% | $36.72 |
| Year 2 | 18.02% | $43.34 |
| Year 3 | 12.76% | $48.87 |
| Year 4 | 9.34% | $53.44 |
| Year 5 | 7.12% | $57.24 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $57.24 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.43× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,341.22 |
| Discounted at 10.08% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6164 | $829.77 |
We publish no single base value for Meta Platforms. Our valuation methods put it between $606.14 and $829.77 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $353.18 and a 10% chance it is above $1,100.61 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $623.61, from 44.12% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.08% a year.
At $623.61 the price implies free cash flow growing 26.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 26.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $728.08 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $718.67 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $709.33 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $642.62 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $614.99 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $610.15 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $623.61 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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