We publish no single base value for MGM Resorts. Our valuation methods put it between $12.41 and $69.07 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $69.07 | +107.8% | free cash flow $1.58bn, growth -0.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.44%; stress floor $56.50 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $12.41 | -62.7% | earnings per share $1.47 valued at 13.27× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.34 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.27 (74% own, 26% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.18 (0.67 × 1.27 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.44% |
Free cash flow grows -0.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.58bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -0.90% | $1.56bn | 0.9055 | $1.42bn |
| Year 2 | -0.90% | $1.55bn | 0.8199 | $1.27bn |
| Year 3 | -0.90% | $1.54bn | 0.7424 | $1.14bn |
| Year 4 | -0.90% | $1.52bn | 0.6722 | $1.02bn |
| Year 5 | -0.90% | $1.51bn | 0.6087 | $917.57m |
| Year 6 | -0.25% | $1.50bn | 0.5511 | $828.75m |
| Year 7 | 0.40% | $1.51bn | 0.4990 | $753.41m |
| Year 8 | 1.05% | $1.53bn | 0.4518 | $689.35m |
| Year 9 | 1.70% | $1.55bn | 0.4091 | $634.80m |
| Year 10 | 2.35% | $1.59bn | 0.3705 | $588.30m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.44% − 3%) | $21.98bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.14bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $9.26bn |
| Total present value | $17.40bn |
| Shares outstanding | 251.96m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $69.07 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -5.9% | Growth -0.9% | Growth 4.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.44% | $58.70 | $79.26 | $106.91 |
| 10.44% | $51.65 | $69.07 | $92.38 |
| 11.44% | $46.24 | $61.28 | $81.29 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.34 | 11.16% | $63.27 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $72.85 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.18 | 10.44% | $69.07 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.47 |
| Year 1 | -0.90% | $1.46 |
| Year 2 | 0.27% | $1.46 |
| Year 3 | 1.09% | $1.48 |
| Year 4 | 1.66% | $1.50 |
| Year 5 | 2.06% | $1.54 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.54 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.27× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $20.38 |
| Discounted at 10.44% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6430 | $12.41 |
We publish no single base value for MGM Resorts. Our valuation methods put it between $12.41 and $69.07 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $21.09 and a 10% chance it is above $55.66 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $33.24, from 37.67% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.44% a year.
At $33.24 the price implies free cash flow growing -13.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -0.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $30.48 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $29.27 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $28.60 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $28.06 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $29.96 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $32.34 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $33.24 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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