On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for McCormick & Company is $133.43 a share, 187.5% above its $46.41 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $133.43 | +187.5% | free cash flow $925.90m, growth 13.23% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.96%; stress floor $62.84 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 24.6x is 1.7x the 14.5x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.66 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.26 (median of 7 S&P 500 Packaged Foods & Meats companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.44 (46% own, 54% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.63 (0.67 × 0.44 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.96% |
Free cash flow grows 13.23% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $925.90m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.23% | $1.05bn | 0.9262 | $971.05m |
| Year 2 | 13.23% | $1.19bn | 0.8579 | $1.02bn |
| Year 3 | 13.23% | $1.34bn | 0.7946 | $1.07bn |
| Year 4 | 13.23% | $1.52bn | 0.7360 | $1.12bn |
| Year 5 | 13.23% | $1.72bn | 0.6817 | $1.17bn |
| Year 6 | 11.53% | $1.92bn | 0.6314 | $1.21bn |
| Year 7 | 9.82% | $2.11bn | 0.5848 | $1.23bn |
| Year 8 | 8.12% | $2.28bn | 0.5417 | $1.24bn |
| Year 9 | 6.41% | $2.43bn | 0.5017 | $1.22bn |
| Year 10 | 4.71% | $2.54bn | 0.4647 | $1.18bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.96% − 3%) | $52.74bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $24.51bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $11.44bn |
| Total present value | $35.95bn |
| Shares outstanding | 269.40m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $133.43 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.23% | Growth 13.23% | Growth 18.23% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.96% | — | $169.81 | $229.98 |
| 7.96% | — | $133.43 | $179.61 |
| 8.96% | — | $109.35 | $146.32 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.66 | 8.10% | $129.62 |
| Peer beta | 0.26 | 6.30% | $206.33 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.63 | 7.96% | $133.43 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $133.43 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $133.43
Base value $133.43 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $31.64 and a 10% chance it is above $71.77 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $46.41, from 31.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.96% a year.
At $46.41 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $44.67 | $64.77 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $44.81 | $56.85 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $46.35 | $134.75 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $48.12 | $137.27 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $47.29 | $139.35 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $48.40 | $141.49 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $46.41 | $133.43 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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