We publish no single base value for 3M. Our valuation methods put it between $70.65 and $79.46 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $70.65 | -62.1% | free cash flow $2.68bn, growth 1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.63%; stress floor $53.12 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $79.46 | -57.3% | earnings per share $9.13 valued at 12.55× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing states no operating profit for 'Safety and Industrial'. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.00 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 1.02 (median of 79 S&P 500 Industrials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.01 (71% own, 29% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.00 (0.67 × 1.01 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.63% |
Free cash flow grows 1.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.68bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.00% | $2.70bn | 0.9122 | $2.47bn |
| Year 2 | 1.00% | $2.73bn | 0.8320 | $2.27bn |
| Year 3 | 1.00% | $2.76bn | 0.7589 | $2.09bn |
| Year 4 | 1.00% | $2.79bn | 0.6923 | $1.93bn |
| Year 5 | 1.00% | $2.81bn | 0.6315 | $1.78bn |
| Year 6 | 1.33% | $2.85bn | 0.5760 | $1.64bn |
| Year 7 | 1.67% | $2.90bn | 0.5254 | $1.52bn |
| Year 8 | 2.00% | $2.96bn | 0.4793 | $1.42bn |
| Year 9 | 2.33% | $3.03bn | 0.4372 | $1.32bn |
| Year 10 | 2.67% | $3.11bn | 0.3988 | $1.24bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.63% − 3%) | $48.26bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $19.24bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $17.68bn |
| Total present value | $36.92bn |
| Shares outstanding | 522.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $70.65 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4% | Growth 1% | Growth 6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.63% | $60.92 | $82.91 | $112.50 |
| 9.63% | $52.43 | $70.65 | $95.06 |
| 10.63% | $46.13 | $61.60 | $82.22 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.00 | 9.63% | $70.65 |
| Peer beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $69.73 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.00 | 9.63% | $70.65 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.13 |
| Year 1 | 1.00% | $9.22 |
| Year 2 | 1.60% | $9.37 |
| Year 3 | 2.02% | $9.56 |
| Year 4 | 2.31% | $9.78 |
| Year 5 | 2.52% | $10.03 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.03 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.55× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $125.83 |
| Discounted at 9.63% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5836 | $79.46 |
We publish no single base value for 3M. Our valuation methods put it between $70.65 and $79.46 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $133.70 and a 10% chance it is above $286.70 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $186.24, from 29.61% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.63% a year.
At $186.24 the price implies free cash flow growing 17.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $161.89 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $159.96 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $164.75 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $173.46 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $174.34 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $185.15 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $186.24 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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