We publish no single base value for Monster Beverage. Our valuation methods put it between $23.60 and $48.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $48.18 | +5.7% | free cash flow $1.92bn, growth 16.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.01%; plus net cash $2.31 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $23.60 | -48.2% | earnings per share $1.15 valued at 17.67× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.51 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.46 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.64 (0.67 × 0.46 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.01% |
Free cash flow grows 16.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.92bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 16.70% | $2.24bn | 0.9258 | $2.08bn |
| Year 2 | 16.70% | $2.62bn | 0.8572 | $2.24bn |
| Year 3 | 16.70% | $3.05bn | 0.7936 | $2.42bn |
| Year 4 | 16.70% | $3.56bn | 0.7348 | $2.62bn |
| Year 5 | 16.70% | $4.16bn | 0.6803 | $2.83bn |
| Year 6 | 14.42% | $4.76bn | 0.6298 | $3.00bn |
| Year 7 | 12.13% | $5.34bn | 0.5831 | $3.11bn |
| Year 8 | 9.85% | $5.86bn | 0.5399 | $3.16bn |
| Year 9 | 7.57% | $6.30bn | 0.4998 | $3.15bn |
| Year 10 | 5.28% | $6.64bn | 0.4628 | $3.07bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.01% − 3%) | $136.47bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $63.15bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $27.69bn |
| Total present value | $90.84bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.98bn |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $45.88 |
| Plus net cash per share | $2.31 |
| Value per share | $48.18 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 11.7% | Growth 16.7% | Growth 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.01% | $45.42 | $60.81 | $81.11 |
| 8.01% | $36.33 | $48.19 | $63.77 |
| 9.01% | $30.29 | $39.81 | $52.27 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.51 | 7.42% | $54.87 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $65.21 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.64 | 8.01% | $48.19 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.15 |
| Year 1 | 16.70% | $1.34 |
| Year 2 | 13.27% | $1.52 |
| Year 3 | 10.71% | $1.68 |
| Year 4 | 8.78% | $1.83 |
| Year 5 | 7.33% | $1.96 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.96 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.67× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $34.69 |
| Discounted at 8.01% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4700 | $23.60 |
We publish no single base value for Monster Beverage. Our valuation methods put it between $23.60 and $48.18 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $34.03 and a 10% chance it is above $66.63 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $45.57, from 26.08% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.01% a year.
At $45.57 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 16.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $42.94 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $43.64 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $45.73 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $46.19 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $47.34 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $45.72 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $45.57 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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