We publish no single base value for Altria. Our valuation methods put it between $45.99 and $119.21 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $119.21 | +53.0% | free cash flow $9.07bn, growth 3.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.88%; stress floor $75.86 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $45.99 | -41.0% | earnings per share $5.69 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.4×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.44 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.41 (67% own, 33% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.61 (0.67 × 0.41 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.88% |
Free cash flow grows 3.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.07bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.60% | $9.40bn | 0.9270 | $8.71bn |
| Year 2 | 3.60% | $9.74bn | 0.8593 | $8.37bn |
| Year 3 | 3.60% | $10.09bn | 0.7966 | $8.03bn |
| Year 4 | 3.60% | $10.45bn | 0.7384 | $7.72bn |
| Year 5 | 3.60% | $10.83bn | 0.6845 | $7.41bn |
| Year 6 | 3.50% | $11.20bn | 0.6346 | $7.11bn |
| Year 7 | 3.40% | $11.59bn | 0.5882 | $6.82bn |
| Year 8 | 3.30% | $11.97bn | 0.5453 | $6.53bn |
| Year 9 | 3.20% | $12.35bn | 0.5055 | $6.24bn |
| Year 10 | 3.10% | $12.73bn | 0.4686 | $5.97bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.88% − 3%) | $269.04bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $126.07bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $72.90bn |
| Total present value | $198.97bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.67bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $119.21 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.4% | Growth 3.6% | Growth 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.88% | $108.58 | $150.15 | — |
| 7.88% | $87.09 | $119.21 | — |
| 8.88% | $72.87 | $98.82 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.44 | 7.11% | $141.53 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $155.18 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.61 | 7.88% | $119.21 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.69 |
| Year 1 | 3.60% | $5.90 |
| Year 2 | 3.45% | $6.10 |
| Year 3 | 3.34% | $6.31 |
| Year 4 | 3.25% | $6.51 |
| Year 5 | 3.19% | $6.72 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.72 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.4×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $67.18 |
| Discounted at 7.88% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4608 | $45.99 |
We publish no single base value for Altria. Our valuation methods put it between $45.99 and $119.21 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $61.11 and a 10% chance it is above $109.98 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $77.92, from 22.81% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.88% a year.
At $77.92 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $67.35 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $71.68 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $75.11 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $74.31 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $78.03 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $76.12 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $77.92 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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