On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Marathon Petroleum is $225.22 a share, 45.4% below its $412.85 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | 18.62x spot |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 11.5x is 1.9x the 6.0x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | $225.22 | -45.4% | the stock's own median price-to-sales of 0.36× |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Price to sales | $225.22 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $225.22
Base value $225.22 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $243.61 and a 10% chance it is above $694.94 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $412.85, from 40.69% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.28% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $422.33 | $660.50 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $455.03 | $661.94 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $478.07 | $1,816.67 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $457.22 | $1,848.87 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $444.73 | $1,893.47 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $372.74 | $225.22 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $412.85 | $225.22 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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