On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Moderna is $29.36 a share, 87.3% below its $231.35 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | -$183.32 is below net cash per share ($8.83) — a going concern cannot be worth less than the cash on its balance sheet |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | $29.36 | -87.3% | the stock's own median price-to-sales of 5× |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Price to sales | $29.36 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $29.36
Base value $29.36 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $0.97 and a 10% chance it is above $344.33 in a year; a 14% chance it is higher than today's $231.35, from 227.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.7% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $190.01 | $26.84 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $225.00 | $26.84 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $218.01 | $26.84 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $200.10 | $26.84 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $221.72 | $26.84 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $254.19 | $29.36 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $231.35 | $29.36 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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