On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Marvell Technology is $86.58 a share, 47.4% below its $164.45 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $86.58 | -47.4% | free cash flow $1.73bn, growth 30.62% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.82%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 36.6x is 1.6x the 22.4x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.31 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.49) |
| Peer beta | 1.78 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 2.07 (53% own, 47% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.71 (0.67 × 2.07 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.82% |
Free cash flow grows 30.62% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.73bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 30.62% | $2.26bn | 0.8863 | $2.00bn |
| Year 2 | 30.62% | $2.95bn | 0.7856 | $2.32bn |
| Year 3 | 30.62% | $3.86bn | 0.6963 | $2.68bn |
| Year 4 | 30.62% | $5.04bn | 0.6171 | $3.11bn |
| Year 5 | 30.62% | $6.58bn | 0.5470 | $3.60bn |
| Year 6 | 26.02% | $8.29bn | 0.4848 | $4.02bn |
| Year 7 | 21.41% | $10.07bn | 0.4297 | $4.32bn |
| Year 8 | 16.81% | $11.76bn | 0.3809 | $4.48bn |
| Year 9 | 12.21% | $13.19bn | 0.3376 | $4.45bn |
| Year 10 | 7.60% | $14.20bn | 0.2992 | $4.25bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.82% − 3%) | $148.81bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $44.52bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $35.23bn |
| Total present value | $79.76bn |
| Shares outstanding | 921.20m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $86.58 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 25.62% | Growth 30.62% | Growth 35.62% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.82% | $76.14 | $99.24 | $128.73 |
| 12.82% | $66.68 | $86.58 | $111.92 |
| 13.82% | $59.06 | $76.39 | $98.42 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.31 | 15.52% | $63.04 |
| Peer beta | 1.78 | 13.14% | $83.14 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.71 | 12.82% | $86.58 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $86.58 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $86.58
Base value $86.58 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $38.23 and a 10% chance it is above $395.54 in a year; a 38% chance it is higher than today's $164.45, from 90.7% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.82% a year.
At $164.45 the price implies free cash flow growing 43.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 30.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $272.29 | $205.55 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $275.28 | $206.03 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $227.83 | $194.38 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $228.51 | $195.11 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $196.40 | $209.23 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $141.20 | $89.64 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $164.45 | $86.58 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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