We publish no single base value for MSCI. Our valuation methods put it between $525.23 and $700.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $525.23 | -19.4% | free cash flow $1.54bn, growth 12.33% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.17%; stress floor $284.75 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $700.13 | +7.5% | earnings per share $19.68 valued at 38.1× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.20 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.96 (median of 7 S&P 500 Financial Exchanges & Data companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.17 (88% own, 12% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.12 (0.67 × 1.17 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.17% |
Free cash flow grows 12.33% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.54bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.33% | $1.73bn | 0.9077 | $1.57bn |
| Year 2 | 12.33% | $1.94bn | 0.8239 | $1.60bn |
| Year 3 | 12.33% | $2.18bn | 0.7478 | $1.63bn |
| Year 4 | 12.33% | $2.45bn | 0.6788 | $1.66bn |
| Year 5 | 12.33% | $2.75bn | 0.6161 | $1.69bn |
| Year 6 | 10.78% | $3.05bn | 0.5593 | $1.70bn |
| Year 7 | 9.22% | $3.33bn | 0.5076 | $1.69bn |
| Year 8 | 7.67% | $3.58bn | 0.4608 | $1.65bn |
| Year 9 | 6.11% | $3.80bn | 0.4182 | $1.59bn |
| Year 10 | 4.56% | $3.97bn | 0.3796 | $1.51bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.17% − 3%) | $57.10bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $21.68bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.30bn |
| Total present value | $37.97bn |
| Shares outstanding | 72.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $525.23 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 7.33% | Growth 12.33% | Growth 17.33% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.17% | — | $618.74 | $827.73 |
| 10.17% | $393.39 | $525.23 | $698.51 |
| 11.17% | $343.02 | — | $601.60 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.20 | 10.53% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $589.59 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.12 | 10.17% | $525.23 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.68 |
| Year 1 | 12.33% | $22.11 |
| Year 2 | 10.00% | $24.32 |
| Year 3 | 8.25% | $26.32 |
| Year 4 | 6.94% | $28.15 |
| Year 5 | 5.95% | $29.82 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $29.82 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 38.1× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,136.31 |
| Discounted at 10.17% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6230 | $700.13 |
We publish no single base value for MSCI. Our valuation methods put it between $525.23 and $700.13 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $487.36 and a 10% chance it is above $985.95 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $651.51, from 27.35% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.17% a year.
At $651.51 the price implies free cash flow growing 16.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 12.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $535.95 | $711.90 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $565.12 | $711.90 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $569.08 | $711.90 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $615.62 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $623.38 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $641.01 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $651.51 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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