On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for M&T Bank is $187.19 a share, 14.8% below its $219.78 close; 1 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | not used for banks and lenders: deposits and loans are the business, so free cash flow does not describe it; see tangible book |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $137.70 | -37.3% | earnings per share $19.46 valued at 10.35× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $236.68 | +7.7% | tangible book $142.23 a share at 1.664× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $19.46 |
| Year 1 | 0.50% | $19.56 |
| Year 2 | 1.12% | $19.78 |
| Year 3 | 1.59% | $20.10 |
| Year 4 | 1.95% | $20.49 |
| Year 5 | 2.21% | $20.94 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $20.94 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.35× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $216.72 |
| Discounted at 9.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5739 | $137.70 |
| Shareholders' equity | $29.18bn |
| Less goodwill | $8.46bn |
| Less other intangibles | $64.00m |
| Tangible equity | $20.65bn |
| Shares | 145.17m |
| Tangible book per share | $142.23 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $2.85bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 13.81% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 9.50% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (13.81% − 3%) ÷ (9.50% − 3%) | 1.66× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $236.68 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $137.70 |
| Tangible book | $236.68 |
($137.70 + $236.68) ÷ 2 = $187.19
Base value $187.19 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $185.42 and a 10% chance it is above $302.81 in a year; a 65% chance it is higher than today's $219.78, from 19.04% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.5% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $219.14 | $175.62 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $217.49 | $172.73 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $215.28 | $186.51 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $221.66 | $189.00 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $220.72 | $191.50 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $217.75 | $193.01 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $219.78 | $187.19 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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