We publish no single base value for Nasdaq, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $91.68 and $106.86 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $106.86 | -1.6% | free cash flow $2.26bn, growth 11.92% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.54%; stress floor $57.12 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $91.68 | -15.6% | earnings per share $4.14 valued at 23.29× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.96 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 1.03 (median of 7 S&P 500 Financial Exchanges & Data companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.97 (85% own, 15% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.98 (0.67 × 0.97 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.54% |
Free cash flow grows 11.92% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.26bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.92% | $2.53bn | 0.9129 | $2.31bn |
| Year 2 | 11.92% | $2.83bn | 0.8334 | $2.36bn |
| Year 3 | 11.92% | $3.17bn | 0.7608 | $2.41bn |
| Year 4 | 11.92% | $3.54bn | 0.6946 | $2.46bn |
| Year 5 | 11.92% | $3.97bn | 0.6341 | $2.51bn |
| Year 6 | 10.43% | $4.38bn | 0.5788 | $2.53bn |
| Year 7 | 8.95% | $4.77bn | 0.5284 | $2.52bn |
| Year 8 | 7.46% | $5.13bn | 0.4824 | $2.47bn |
| Year 9 | 5.97% | $5.43bn | 0.4404 | $2.39bn |
| Year 10 | 4.49% | $5.68bn | 0.4020 | $2.28bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.54% − 3%) | $89.40bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $35.94bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $24.25bn |
| Total present value | $60.19bn |
| Shares outstanding | 563.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $106.86 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 6.92% | Growth 11.92% | Growth 16.92% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.54% | — | $127.86 | $171.78 |
| 9.54% | $79.67 | $106.86 | $142.70 |
| 10.54% | $68.68 | — | $121.47 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $108.48 |
| Peer beta | 1.03 | 9.77% | $103.00 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.98 | 9.54% | $106.86 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.14 |
| Year 1 | 11.92% | $4.64 |
| Year 2 | 9.69% | $5.09 |
| Year 3 | 8.02% | $5.50 |
| Year 4 | 6.76% | $5.87 |
| Year 5 | 5.82% | $6.21 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.21 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 23.29× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $144.59 |
| Discounted at 9.54% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5771 | $91.68 |
We publish no single base value for Nasdaq, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $91.68 and $106.86 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $83.21 and a 10% chance it is above $160.25 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $108.65, from 25.44% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.54% a year.
At $108.65 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 11.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $90.33 | $86.63 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $93.65 | $86.33 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $93.97 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $102.56 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $106.23 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $107.12 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $108.65 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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