We publish no single base value for Nike, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $14.00 and $20.10 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $14.00 | -62.9% | free cash flow $2.10bn, growth -4.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.77%; stress floor $12.49 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $20.10 | -46.8% | earnings per share $1.25 valued at 26.99× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.02 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.04 (76% own, 24% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.03 (0.67 × 1.04 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.77% |
Free cash flow grows -4.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.10bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -4.30% | $2.01bn | 0.9110 | $1.84bn |
| Year 2 | -4.30% | $1.93bn | 0.8300 | $1.60bn |
| Year 3 | -4.30% | $1.84bn | 0.7562 | $1.40bn |
| Year 4 | -4.30% | $1.77bn | 0.6889 | $1.22bn |
| Year 5 | -4.30% | $1.69bn | 0.6276 | $1.06bn |
| Year 6 | -3.08% | $1.64bn | 0.5718 | $936.33m |
| Year 7 | -1.87% | $1.61bn | 0.5209 | $837.10m |
| Year 8 | -0.65% | $1.60bn | 0.4746 | $757.68m |
| Year 9 | 0.57% | $1.61bn | 0.4323 | $694.18m |
| Year 10 | 1.78% | $1.63bn | 0.3939 | $643.70m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.77% − 3%) | $24.88bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $9.80bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.98bn |
| Total present value | $20.78bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.48bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $14.00 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -9.3% | Growth -4.3% | Growth 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.77% | $11.91 | $16.20 | $22.02 |
| 9.77% | $10.41 | $14.00 | $18.84 |
| 10.77% | $9.28 | $12.35 | $16.48 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $14.08 |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $13.28 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.03 | 9.77% | $14.00 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.25 |
| Year 1 | -4.30% | $1.20 |
| Year 2 | -2.11% | $1.17 |
| Year 3 | -0.58% | $1.17 |
| Year 4 | 0.50% | $1.17 |
| Year 5 | 1.25% | $1.19 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.19 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 26.99× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $32.03 |
| Discounted at 9.77% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5934 | $20.10 |
We publish no single base value for Nike, Inc. Our valuation methods put it between $14.00 and $20.10 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $26.41 and a 10% chance it is above $59.19 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $37.76, from 31.32% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.77% a year.
At $37.76 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -4.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $33.87 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $34.71 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $37.13 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $37.30 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $38.67 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $38.59 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $37.76 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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