On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for ServiceNow is $187.45 a share, 86.2% above its $100.66 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $187.45 | +86.2% | free cash flow $4.75bn, growth 20.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.9%; plus net cash $0.57 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 59.0x is 2.8x the 21.0x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.99 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.33) |
| Peer beta | 1.11 (median of 6 S&P 500 Systems Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.09 (18% own, 82% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 (0.67 × 1.09 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.90% |
Free cash flow grows 20.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.75bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 20.50% | $5.72bn | 0.9099 | $5.21bn |
| Year 2 | 20.50% | $6.90bn | 0.8280 | $5.71bn |
| Year 3 | 20.50% | $8.31bn | 0.7534 | $6.26bn |
| Year 4 | 20.50% | $10.01bn | 0.6855 | $6.87bn |
| Year 5 | 20.50% | $12.07bn | 0.6238 | $7.53bn |
| Year 6 | 17.58% | $14.19bn | 0.5676 | $8.05bn |
| Year 7 | 14.67% | $16.27bn | 0.5164 | $8.40bn |
| Year 8 | 11.75% | $18.18bn | 0.4699 | $8.54bn |
| Year 9 | 8.83% | $19.79bn | 0.4276 | $8.46bn |
| Year 10 | 5.92% | $20.96bn | 0.3891 | $8.15bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.90% − 3%) | $312.88bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $121.73bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $73.19bn |
| Total present value | $194.92bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.04bn |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $186.88 |
| Plus net cash per share | $0.57 |
| Value per share | $187.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 15.5% | Growth 20.5% | Growth 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90% | $168.08 | $224.23 | $297.40 |
| 9.90% | $141.30 | $187.45 | $247.44 |
| 10.90% | $121.42 | $160.20 | $210.48 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.99 | 9.59% | $197.80 |
| Peer beta | 1.11 | 10.12% | $180.63 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.06 | 9.90% | $187.45 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $187.45 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $187.45
Base value $187.45 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $28.76 and a 10% chance it is above $224.37 in a year; a 39% chance it is higher than today's $100.66, from 79.74% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.9% a year.
At $100.66 the price implies free cash flow growing 9.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 20.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $134.38 | $96.42 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $140.86 | $96.13 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $141.97 | $199.56 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $158.96 | $202.42 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $105.12 | $193.78 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $101.97 | $196.02 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $100.66 | $187.45 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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