We publish no single base value for NRG Energy. Our valuation methods put it between $110.87 and $146.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $146.73 | +49.6% | free cash flow $689.00m, growth 17.53% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.5%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $110.87 | +13.1% | earnings per share $8.84 valued at 11.2× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.22 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.32) |
| Peer beta | 0.48 (median of 30 S&P 500 Utilities companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.63 (20% own, 80% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.75 (0.67 × 0.63 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.50% |
Free cash flow grows 17.53% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $689.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 17.53% | $809.78m | 0.9216 | $746.31m |
| Year 2 | 17.53% | $951.74m | 0.8494 | $808.38m |
| Year 3 | 17.53% | $1.12bn | 0.7828 | $875.62m |
| Year 4 | 17.53% | $1.31bn | 0.7214 | $948.45m |
| Year 5 | 17.53% | $1.55bn | 0.6649 | $1.03bn |
| Year 6 | 15.11% | $1.78bn | 0.6128 | $1.09bn |
| Year 7 | 12.69% | $2.00bn | 0.5647 | $1.13bn |
| Year 8 | 10.27% | $2.21bn | 0.5205 | $1.15bn |
| Year 9 | 7.84% | $2.38bn | 0.4797 | $1.14bn |
| Year 10 | 5.42% | $2.51bn | 0.4421 | $1.11bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.50% − 3%) | $47.01bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $20.78bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.03bn |
| Total present value | $30.81bn |
| Shares outstanding | 210.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $146.73 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 12.53% | Growth 17.53% | Growth 22.53% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.50% | $135.53 | $183.12 | $245.69 |
| 8.50% | $109.27 | $146.73 | $195.84 |
| 9.50% | $91.16 | $121.69 | $161.58 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.22 | 10.62% | $101.65 |
| Peer beta | 0.48 | 7.29% | $193.19 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.75 | 8.50% | $146.73 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.84 |
| Year 1 | 17.53% | $10.39 |
| Year 2 | 13.17% | $11.76 |
| Year 3 | 10.12% | $12.95 |
| Year 4 | 7.98% | $13.98 |
| Year 5 | 6.49% | $14.89 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $14.89 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.2× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $166.74 |
| Discounted at 8.50% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5040 | $110.87 |
We publish no single base value for NRG Energy. Our valuation methods put it between $110.87 and $146.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $42.65 and a 10% chance it is above $189.35 in a year; a 44% chance it is higher than today's $98.05, from 57.86% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.5% a year.
At $98.05 the price implies free cash flow growing 10.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 17.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $95.23 | $80.77 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $107.97 | $81.06 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $103.75 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $92.31 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $96.06 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $88.29 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $98.05 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on NRG · NRG Energy company page · Call and put prices