We publish no single base value for Northern Trust. Our valuation methods put it between $136.97 and $256.95 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $256.95 | +44.6% | free cash flow $1.07bn, growth 6.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.75%; plus net cash $162.33 a share; stress floor $224.68 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $136.97 | -22.9% | earnings per share $13.41 valued at 13.25× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.21 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 1.49 (median of 11 S&P 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.37 (42% own, 58% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.25 (0.67 × 1.37 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.75% |
Free cash flow grows 6.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.07bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.50% | $1.14bn | 0.9029 | $1.03bn |
| Year 2 | 6.50% | $1.21bn | 0.8152 | $986.59m |
| Year 3 | 6.50% | $1.29bn | 0.7361 | $948.69m |
| Year 4 | 6.50% | $1.37bn | 0.6646 | $912.24m |
| Year 5 | 6.50% | $1.46bn | 0.6000 | $877.19m |
| Year 6 | 5.92% | $1.55bn | 0.5418 | $838.87m |
| Year 7 | 5.33% | $1.63bn | 0.4892 | $797.81m |
| Year 8 | 4.75% | $1.71bn | 0.4417 | $754.55m |
| Year 9 | 4.17% | $1.78bn | 0.3988 | $709.67m |
| Year 10 | 3.58% | $1.84bn | 0.3601 | $663.72m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.75% − 3%) | $24.48bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $8.82bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.52bn |
| Total present value | $17.33bn |
| Shares outstanding | 183.17m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $94.61 |
| Plus net cash per share | $162.33 |
| Value per share | $256.95 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 1.5% | Growth 6.5% | Growth 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.75% | $243.60 | $271.54 | — |
| 10.75% | $233.29 | $256.94 | — |
| 11.75% | $225.33 | $245.71 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.21 | 10.57% | $259.28 |
| Peer beta | 1.49 | 11.84% | $244.92 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.25 | 10.75% | $256.94 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.41 |
| Year 1 | 6.50% | $14.29 |
| Year 2 | 5.62% | $15.09 |
| Year 3 | 4.97% | $15.84 |
| Year 4 | 4.48% | $16.55 |
| Year 5 | 4.11% | $17.23 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $17.23 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.25× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $228.27 |
| Discounted at 10.75% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6665 | $136.97 |
We publish no single base value for Northern Trust. Our valuation methods put it between $136.97 and $256.95 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $144.82 and a 10% chance it is above $256.37 in a year; a 64% chance it is higher than today's $177.67, from 22.17% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.75% a year.
At $177.67 the price implies free cash flow growing -26.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 6.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $171.40 | $76.30 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $168.21 | $76.78 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $165.54 | $117.45 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $167.92 | $136.84 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $169.16 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $172.76 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $177.67 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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